John-Z's Overlay · Trifecta ATM
← Churchill Downs R3

PP 3

CHISELER

G '20 · SPEIGHTSTOWN × SPINDLE

Trainer: VANDEN BERG BRITTANY A · Jockey: SAEZ LUIS

Today's prediction

78.8

Speed fig

21.4%

In-the-money

Last 10 races

Why this prediction?

Base prediction: 76.4 fig points

Pushing prediction up

  • Speed Fig On Todays Surface Mean +1.57
  • Trouble Adjusted Speed Fig Last 5 +0.76
  • Mean Class Par Last 5 +0.75
  • Mean Speed Fig Last 5 +0.61
  • Mean Speed Fig Last 3 +0.46

Pushing prediction down

  • BRIS Prime Power -2.58
  • Last Speed Fig -0.18
  • Today Field Size -0.17
  • Num Career Starts -0.15
  • Field Size Change From Last -0.14

Past performances

Date Track Dist Sfx Fin Beat Fig Class Comment
2026-04-24 KEE 6f Dirt 8 15.3 70 91 Ins;brush 1/4;gave way
2026-03-21 TP 6f Dirt 7 9.0 74 92 Press;chsd ins;left ld
2026-02-05 TP 6f Dirt 3 0.5 90 92 Inside; fought on
2025-12-06 TP 6.5f Dirt 7 6.3 82 96 Ins chase;leveled off
2025-11-15 CD 5.5f Turf 6 4.0 89 77 Bumps brk;insd;9w 3/16
2025-09-18 CD 6.5f Dirt 5 4.5 86 90 Stalk 3p;no bid;yieldd
2025-08-21 CNL 5.5f Turf 6 4.5 76 89 Chased3-4w; weakened
2025-08-03 ELP 5.5f Turf 10 5.0 82 93 Stalk ins;fade btw upr
2025-07-04 IND 5f Turf 7 5.5 82 96 Shift3p1/4;no late bid
2025-05-24 CD 5.5f Turf 2 3.8 91 93 Ins;no match;lastd plc