John-Z's Overlay · Trifecta ATM
← Churchill Downs R3

PP 7

NASTY HABIT

G '19 · VIOLENCE × LEMON BELLE

Trainer: MILLER PETER · Jockey: ESQUIVEL EMMANUEL

Today's prediction

84.0

Speed fig

32.9%

In-the-money

Last 10 races

Why this prediction?

Base prediction: 76.4 fig points

Pushing prediction up

  • BRIS Prime Power +6.19
  • Mean Speed Fig Last 3 +1.45
  • Mean Class Par Last 5 +0.76
  • Trouble Adjusted Speed Fig Last 5 +0.72
  • Last Speed Fig +0.39

Pushing prediction down

  • Speed Fig On Todays Surface Mean -1.49
  • Today Field Size -0.25
  • Is Surface Change From Last -0.20
  • Field Size Change From Last -0.18
  • Num Career Starts -0.17

Past performances

Date Track Dist Sfx Fin Beat Fig Class Comment
2026-05-01 OP 6f Dirt 3 1.0 88 95 3w bid;could not late
2026-04-11 OP 6f Dirt 3 1.0 85 95 3-4p;battled;edged out
2026-03-08 OP 6f Dirt 1 3.5 91 89 3-4p;bid5/16;drw clear
2026-01-31 DED 6.5f Dirt 4 3.3 80 89 Lacked late response
2025-12-13 DED 6.5f Dirt 5 9.3 70 85 Speed; faded
2025-11-13 DED 5f Dirt 1 2.0 86 85 Wide bid; going away
2025-04-25 OP 6f Dirt 8 10.3 78 97 Pressed 3w; gave way
2025-03-16 OP 1m Dirt 7 11.5 81 93 Settled; no response
2025-02-23 OP 6f Dirt 3 0.8 90 Vied 3w; stubborn
2025-02-02 OP 6f Dirt 5 11.3 83 4-5w 1/4;improvd upper