Sat, May 23
Race 11
Alw 50000s
Post: 5:59 · 1.06m · Turf · $83K purse · 14 runners
New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.Pace shape
14 runnersContested pace
2 early types — pace should be honest but not crazy. No strong style bias.
Projected speed
- #2 HEARTBEAT (P, QSP 7)
- #1 JERSEYS PARADE (E, QSP 5)
- #7 KITTENS STORMY GAL (EP, QSP 3)
Trifecta shape
Wide openLottery shape — low hit rates, larger payouts when they cash. Entertainment-only; the model is not confident in any structure.
1×3×3 key (top pick) on posts 11, 13, 2, 8
The model's most-likely-to-cash structure (informational — not a bet recommendation).
Cost
$6.00
6 combos
Hit prob
1.1%
simulated
Typical payout if hit
$129.81
mean $142.80
Expected ROI
-72.7%
net $-4.36
- · Most-likely-to-cash structure: 1×3×3 key (top pick) on posts [11, 13, 2, 8] — hits 1.1% of simulated runs
- · At $6 stake, a typical cash pays ≈ $130 (mean $143; trifecta payoffs are heavy-tailed). Estimated from the public pool, validated against archive payoffs.
- · Wide-open shape — anyone could hit; longshots have room.
A Top picks
11, 13
B Contenders
2, 8, 7
C Value-edge longshots
—
Other ticket structures (5)
| Ticket | Cost | Hit prob | Typical payout | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-horse box | $6.00 | 1.3% | $99.97 | -78% |
| 1×4×4 key (top pick) | $12.00 | 2.1% | $148.57 | -67% |
| 2×4×4 part wheel | $12.00 | 2.3% | $129.81 | -72% |
| 1×5×5 key (top pick) | $20.00 | 3.0% | $189.63 | -71% |
| 2×5×5 part wheel | $24.00 | 4.1% | $164.82 | -65% |
Hit prob is the model's per-race PL distribution. "Typical payout" is the median cash, weighted by the public pool's odds (not the model's own picks) and calibrated to actual historical trifecta payoffs — so it reflects what the tote really pays, not the model's disagreement. Walk-forward backtests show pari-mutuel takeout (~16-26%) is too steep to consistently clear at this data scale — these are tipsheet outputs, not bet recommendations.
Field
↳ Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).
| PP | Horse | ML | Pred Close | Pred Fig | Win | ITM% ↓ | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | APCLASSIC GLIDE | 6.0-1 | 5.9-1 | 81.0 | 12% | 34% | ·-3% |
| 13 | ASOCEAN RIPPLE | 5.0-1 | 6.5-1 | 77.9 | 11% | 33% | ▼-10% |
| 2 | BPHEARTBEAT | 3.5-1 | 3.7-1 | 77.9 | 11% | 32% | ▼-25% |
| 8 | BSMCKINZIE'S GLORY | 8.0-1 | 8.8-1 | 78.6 | 9% | 28% | ·-1% |
| 7 | BEPKITTENS STORMY GAL | 10-1 | 13-1 | 77.0 | 9% | 25% | ·+2% |
| 10 | PEVELYN LOUISE | 4.5-1 | 7.0-1 | 73.6 | 7% | 21% | ▼-26% |
| 12 | PCOOL AMERICAN | 15-1 | 24-1 | 74.7 | 7% | 21% | ·+5% |
| 4 | PAVISO | 6.0-1 | 9.8-1 | 73.4 | 7% | 20% | ▼-16% |
| 1 | EJERSEYS PARADE | 15-1 | 32-1 | 76.4 | 7% | 20% | ·+4% |
| 5 | STEARIN'UP MY HEART | 8.0-1 | 12-1 | 70.4 | 6% | 18% | ▼-11% |
| 3 | PSUSSUDIO | 15-1 | 26-1 | 69.0 | 5% | 14% | ·-2% |
| 14 | PMINT DRIVEN | 15-1 | 31-1 | 68.6 | 4% | 13% | ·-3% |
| 9 | PLADY BLAKE | 30-1 | 75-1 | 69.3 | 4% | 12% | ·+4% |
| 6 | PAMAZING LADY | 20-1 | 48-1 | 64.0 | 3% | 10% | ·-2% |
Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. See How to Use for the math.
Ask Claude Opus
Questions about the model's predictions for Race 11 · Sat, May 23 · Churchill Downs. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.
Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.
Limited to 30 questions per day per visitor. Answers are model-generated and may be incorrect — not betting advice.