John-Z's Overlay · Trifecta ATM
← Churchill Downs R11

PP 5

TEARIN'UP MY HEART

F '23 · MIDSHIPMAN × HEARTFUL

Trainer: GARCIA GENARO · Jockey: CARRASCO VICTOR R

Today's prediction

70.4

Speed fig

17.5%

In-the-money

Last 8 races

Why this prediction?

Base prediction: 76.4 fig points

Pushing prediction up

  • Mean Class Par Last 5 +0.30
  • Mean Speed Fig Last 5 +0.22
  • Num Career Starts +0.17
  • Jockey Meet Itm Rate +0.14
  • Max Speed Fig Career +0.14

Pushing prediction down

  • BRIS Prime Power -2.04
  • Speed Fig On Todays Surface Mean -1.84
  • Field Size Change From Last -1.34
  • Today Field Size -0.73
  • Distance Change From Last -0.63

Past performances

Date Track Dist Sfx Fin Beat Fig Class Comment
2026-04-30 CD 7f Dirt 3 4.5 73 86 Ins;chsd 4p1/4;mildly
2026-02-06 TP 1m Dirt 3 4.5 76 87 3-4p; willingly
2026-01-09 TP 1m Dirt 4 8.8 75 87 Ins;6p1/8;moved up
2025-11-30 CD 7f Dirt 6 7.5 73 83 5-6p; no factor
2025-10-26 CD 1.06m Dirt 5 9.3 76 91 Ins;faded 2nd;shft out
2025-09-19 CD 1.06m Dirt 1 9.0 79 71 Ins;bid 2wd upr;cleard
2025-08-16 ELP 1m Turf 3 6.0 64 75 Saved ground;edged shw
2025-07-05 ELP 1m Turf 9 30.0 36 72 Step slow;ins;chck 1/4