John-Z's Overlay · Trifecta ATM
← Churchill Downs R11

PP 4

AVISO

F '22 · HIGHTAIL × OFF THE ROAD

Trainer: MCGEE PAUL · Jockey: HERNANDEZ B J JR

Today's prediction

73.4

Speed fig

20.2%

In-the-money

Last 10 races

Why this prediction?

Base prediction: 76.4 fig points

Pushing prediction up

  • Mean Pace 2f Last 5 +0.40
  • Mean Speed Fig Last 5 +0.38
  • Mean Pace 4f Last 5 +0.35
  • Trouble Adjusted Speed Fig Last 5 +0.34
  • Class Par Trend +0.28

Pushing prediction down

  • BRIS Prime Power -3.75
  • Today Field Size -0.40
  • Field Size Change From Last -0.37
  • Mean Class Par Last 5 -0.34
  • Last Speed Fig -0.25

Past performances

Date Track Dist Sfx Fin Beat Fig Class Comment
2026-04-28 CD 1m Turf 7 6.5 70 82 3wd; no factor
2026-03-14 FG 1m Turf 7 7.0 72 83 3w;tight 1/4;no rally
2025-11-15 CD 1.06m Dirt 5 3.0 84 86 Came out;avoid foe 1/8
2025-10-30 CD 1.13m Dirt 1 6.0 85 79 Ins;wait;5p upr;cleard
2025-09-28 BAQ 1.06m Turf 7 5.3 76 77 Ins-2p;swung out1/4;7p
2025-08-28 SAR 1m Turf 4 3.5 81 81 Bmpd hard brk;5p1/4
2025-07-06 SAR 1.06m Turf 5 2.0 79 79 Chased ins; belatedly
2025-06-13 CD 1.06m Dirt 4 3.8 80 82 2wbtw;chsd 5p1/4;evnly
2025-05-25 CD 1m Dirt 3 1.5 80 86 2p;3w1/4;angld;rallied
2025-04-12 KEE 7f Dirt 4 2.3 79 85 Ins;2-3p1/8;evenly ins