Sat, May 23
Race 10
Alw 50000s
Post: 5:28 · 1m · Dirt · $83K purse · 8 runners
New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.Pace shape
8 runnersHot pace
5 early types pressing for the lead — expect a fast pace, favors closers (P/S).
Projected speed
- #2 GETHSEMANE (E, QSP 8)
- #5 NON CONFORMING (E, QSP 8)
- #6 KID TWIST (P, QSP 8)
- #1 KOKOMO JOE (E, QSP 6)
- #7 C MCGRIFF (EP, QSP 4)
- #4 JUST LIKE MAX (EP, QSP 4)
Trifecta shape
Wide openLottery shape — low hit rates, larger payouts when they cash. Entertainment-only; the model is not confident in any structure.
1×3×3 key (top pick) on posts 2, 3, 5, 7
The model's most-likely-to-cash structure (informational — not a bet recommendation).
Cost
$6.00
6 combos
Hit prob
4.3%
simulated
Typical payout if hit
$14.87
mean $15.84
Expected ROI
-88.5%
net $-5.31
- · Most-likely-to-cash structure: 1×3×3 key (top pick) on posts [2, 3, 5, 7] — hits 4.3% of simulated runs
- · At $6 stake, a typical cash pays ≈ $15 (mean $16; trifecta payoffs are heavy-tailed). Estimated from the public pool, validated against archive payoffs.
- · Wide-open shape — anyone could hit; longshots have room.
A Top picks
2
B Contenders
3, 5, 7
C Value-edge longshots
4, 8
Other ticket structures (5)
| Ticket | Cost | Hit prob | Typical payout | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-horse box | $6.00 | 4.3% | $14.37 | -89% |
| A key, B in 2nd, A+B+C in 3rd | $12.00 | 6.9% | $14.87 | -84% |
| 1×4×4 key (top pick) | $12.00 | 7.9% | $18.21 | -86% |
| 2×4×4 part wheel | $12.00 | 7.9% | $14.87 | -87% |
| 1×5×5 key (top pick) | $20.00 | 12.2% | $23.14 | -83% |
Hit prob is the model's per-race PL distribution. "Typical payout" is the median cash, weighted by the public pool's odds (not the model's own picks) and calibrated to actual historical trifecta payoffs — so it reflects what the tote really pays, not the model's disagreement. Walk-forward backtests show pari-mutuel takeout (~16-26%) is too steep to consistently clear at this data scale — these are tipsheet outputs, not bet recommendations.
Field
↳ Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).
| PP | Horse | ML | Pred Close | Pred Fig | Win | ITM% ↓ | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | AEGETHSEMANE | 1.4-1 | 1.1-1 | 82.7 | 20% | 54% | ▼-46% |
| 3 | BSHIGHLY CONNECTED | 3.0-1 | 3.2-1 | 80.4 | 16% | 46% | ▼-18% |
| 5 | BENON CONFORMING | 4.5-1 | 4.8-1 | 75.7 | 13% | 39% | ▼-7% |
| 7 | BEPC MCGRIFF | 6.0-1 | 6.9-1 | 76.9 | 13% | 38% | ·+2% |
| 6 | PKID TWIST | 8.0-1 | 11-1 | 76.2 | 11% | 35% | ▲+6% |
| 1 | EKOKOMO JOE | 10-1 | 14-1 | 76.0 | 11% | 34% | ▲+11% |
| 4 | CEPJUST LIKE MAX | 20-1 | 33-1 | 74.4 | 10% | 32% | ▲+19% |
| 8 | CPMOUNTAIN WOLF | 30-1 | 54-1 | 70.3 | 7% | 21% | ▲+13% |
Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. See How to Use for the math.
Ask Claude Opus
Questions about the model's predictions for Race 10 · Sat, May 23 · Churchill Downs. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.
Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.
Limited to 30 questions per day per visitor. Answers are model-generated and may be incorrect — not betting advice.