Sat, May 16
Race 9
OClm 80000n2x
Post: 10:11 · 7f · Dirt · $134K purse · 14 runners
New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.Pace shape
14 runnersHot pace
7 early types pressing for the lead — expect a fast pace, favors closers (P/S).
Projected speed
- #13 HYMN (EP, QSP 4)
- #4 KEEWAYDIN (E, QSP 4)
- #7 I GOT GAME (EP, QSP 4)
- #5 TRACK PHANTOM (E, QSP 3)
- #1 I'M MCDREAMY (EP, QSP 3)
- #11 GANAAS (E, QSP 3)
- #9 KEEP IT EASY (EP, QSP 0)
Trifecta shape
Wide openLottery shape — low hit rates, larger payouts when they cash. Entertainment-only; the model is not confident in any structure.
3-horse box on posts 13, 4, 10
The model's most-likely-to-cash structure (informational — not a bet recommendation).
Cost
$6.00
6 combos
Hit prob
0.5%
simulated
Typical payout if hit
$532.50
mean $555.57
Expected ROI
-56.1%
net $-3.37
- · Most-likely-to-cash structure: 3-horse box on posts [13, 4, 10] — hits 0.5% of simulated runs
- · At $6 stake, a typical cash pays ≈ $533 (mean $556; trifecta payoffs are heavy-tailed). Estimated from the public pool, validated against archive payoffs.
- · Wide-open shape — anyone could hit; longshots have room.
A Top picks
13, 4
B Contenders
10, 6, 14
C Value-edge longshots
7
Other ticket structures (5)
| Ticket | Cost | Hit prob | Typical payout | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1×3×3 key (top pick) | $6.00 | 0.5% | $142.74 | -78% |
| 1×4×4 key (top pick) | $12.00 | 0.9% | $396.22 | -73% |
| 2×4×4 part wheel | $12.00 | 0.9% | $150.55 | -77% |
| A key, B in 2nd, A+B+C in 3rd | $24.00 | 1.7% | $473.51 | -60% |
| 1×5×5 key (top pick) | $20.00 | 1.4% | $215.61 | -75% |
Hit prob is the model's per-race PL distribution. "Typical payout" is the median cash, weighted by the public pool's odds (not the model's own picks) and calibrated to actual historical trifecta payoffs — so it reflects what the tote really pays, not the model's disagreement. Walk-forward backtests show pari-mutuel takeout (~16-26%) is too steep to consistently clear at this data scale — these are tipsheet outputs, not bet recommendations.
Field
↳ Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).
| PP | Horse | ML | Pred Close | Pred Fig | Win | ITM% ↓ | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | AEPHYMN | 3.5-1 | 3.7-1 | 84.9 | 9% | 26% | ▼-31% |
| 4 | AEKEEWAYDIN | 6.0-1 | 5.6-1 | 85.4 | 9% | 25% | ▼-11% |
| 10 | BPGOODASIWONSWAS | 15-1 | 21-1 | 84.9 | 8% | 23% | ▲+7% |
| 6 | BSMONEY SUPPLY | 4.0-1 | 5.5-1 | 84.8 | 8% | 23% | ▼-28% |
| 14 | BPDIVE BOMBER | 12-1 | 17-1 | 85.5 | 7% | 22% | ·+3% |
| 5 | ETRACK PHANTOM | 8.0-1 | 8.4-1 | 85.1 | 7% | 22% | ▼-6% |
| 3 | PKALAHARI DREAMS | 5.0-1 | 6.3-1 | 85.5 | 7% | 22% | ▼-20% |
| 7 | CEPI GOT GAME | 20-1 | 24-1 | 81.5 | 7% | 22% | ▲+10% |
| 8 | PCAN'T HUSH THIS | 6.0-1 | 7.5-1 | 84.7 | 7% | 20% | ▼-16% |
| 2 | PTWO EAGLES RIVER | 6.0-1 | 7.8-1 | 84.3 | 7% | 20% | ▼-16% |
| 1 | EPI'M MCDREAMY | 20-1 | 23-1 | 82.4 | 6% | 20% | ▲+7% |
| 11 | EGANAAS | 20-1 | 23-1 | 82.0 | 6% | 19% | ▲+6% |
| 9 | EPKEEP IT EASY | 12-1 | 15-1 | 81.8 | 6% | 18% | ·-1% |
| 12 | PACCRETIVE | 10-1 | 14-1 | 79.9 | 6% | 17% | ▼-6% |
Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. See How to Use for the math.
Ask Claude Opus
Questions about the model's predictions for Race 9 · Sat, May 16 · Churchill Downs. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.
Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.
Limited to 30 questions per day per visitor. Answers are model-generated and may be incorrect — not betting advice.