Sat, May 16
Race 10
Alw 50000s
Post: 10:42 · 1.06m · Dirt · $83K purse · 10 runners
New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.Pace shape
10 runnersHot pace
9 early types pressing for the lead — expect a fast pace, favors closers (P/S).
Projected speed
- #10 GOOGOL JOKE (E, QSP 8)
- #7 NON CONFORMING (E, QSP 8)
- #2 LEGITIMATE (E, QSP 8)
- #9 MCAFEE (EP, QSP 7)
- #8 BIG GAIN (EP, QSP 6)
- #5 MIDWAY MUNNY (EP, QSP 6)
- #6 THRILLA (EP, QSP 5)
- #1 BOURBON FLIGHT (EP, QSP 5)
- #4 SPIRIT OF A WALKON (EP, QSP 5)
Trifecta shape
Wide openLottery shape — low hit rates, larger payouts when they cash. Entertainment-only; the model is not confident in any structure.
1×3×3 key (top pick) on posts 9, 8, 10, 3
The model's most-likely-to-cash structure (informational — not a bet recommendation).
Cost
$6.00
6 combos
Hit prob
3.2%
simulated
Typical payout if hit
$38.49
mean $66.14
Expected ROI
-64.9%
net $-3.90
- · Most-likely-to-cash structure: 1×3×3 key (top pick) on posts [9, 8, 10, 3] — hits 3.2% of simulated runs
- · At $6 stake, a typical cash pays ≈ $38 (mean $66; trifecta payoffs are heavy-tailed). Estimated from the public pool, validated against archive payoffs.
- · Wide-open shape — anyone could hit; longshots have room.
A Top picks
9
B Contenders
8, 10, 3
C Value-edge longshots
5, 6
Other ticket structures (5)
| Ticket | Cost | Hit prob | Typical payout | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-horse box | $6.00 | 3.3% | $39.21 | -75% |
| 2×4×4 part wheel | $12.00 | 5.9% | $39.21 | -60% |
| A key, B in 2nd, A+B+C in 3rd | $12.00 | 5.0% | $38.49 | -65% |
| 1×4×4 key (top pick) | $12.00 | 5.1% | $38.49 | -68% |
| 4-horse box | $24.00 | 10.8% | $57.73 | -47% |
Hit prob is the model's per-race PL distribution. "Typical payout" is the median cash, weighted by the public pool's odds (not the model's own picks) and calibrated to actual historical trifecta payoffs — so it reflects what the tote really pays, not the model's disagreement. Walk-forward backtests show pari-mutuel takeout (~16-26%) is too steep to consistently clear at this data scale — these are tipsheet outputs, not bet recommendations.
Field
↳ Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).
| PP | Horse | ML | Pred Close | Pred Fig | Win | ITM% ↓ | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | AEPMCAFEE | 1.4-1 | 1.2-1 | 87.7 | 18% | 49% | ▼-51% |
| 8 | BEPBIG GAIN | 3.0-1 | 3.4-1 | 85.0 | 15% | 43% | ▼-21% |
| 10 | BEGOOGOL JOKE | 15-1 | 12-1 | 81.0 | 12% | 36% | ▲+20% |
| 3 | BPGLOBAL QUOTE | 30-1 | 30-1 | 80.2 | 12% | 35% | ▲+27% |
| 6 | CEPTHRILLA | 15-1 | 14-1 | 79.0 | 8% | 26% | ▲+10% |
| 1 | EPBOURBON FLIGHT | 6.0-1 | 8.3-1 | 77.7 | 8% | 24% | ▼-12% |
| 7 | ENON CONFORMING | 8.0-1 | 8.0-1 | 74.9 | 7% | 23% | ▼-5% |
| 4 | EPSPIRIT OF A WALKON | 12-1 | 19-1 | 76.0 | 7% | 22% | ·+3% |
| 5 | CEPMIDWAY MUNNY | 30-1 | 40-1 | 77.7 | 7% | 21% | ▲+13% |
| 2 | ELEGITIMATE | 12-1 | 13-1 | 74.5 | 6% | 20% | ·+0% |
Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. See How to Use for the math.
Ask Claude Opus
Questions about the model's predictions for Race 10 · Sat, May 16 · Churchill Downs. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.
Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.
Limited to 30 questions per day per visitor. Answers are model-generated and may be incorrect — not betting advice.