John-Z's Overlay · Trifecta ATM
← Churchill Downs R9

PP 5

TRACK PHANTOM

H '21 · QUALITY ROAD × MISS SUNSET

Trainer: ASMUSSEN STEVEN M · Jockey: GEROUX FLORENT

Today's prediction

85.1

Speed fig

22.3%

In-the-money

Last 10 races

Why this prediction?

Base prediction: 76.4 fig points

Pushing prediction up

  • BRIS Prime Power +4.59
  • Mean Class Par Last 5 +1.42
  • Mean Speed Fig Last 3 +1.37
  • Speed Fig Consistency +1.14
  • Speed Fig On Todays Surface Mean +0.96

Pushing prediction down

  • Today Field Size -1.27
  • Field Size Change From Last -0.54
  • Num Career Starts -0.28
  • Mean Pace 4f Last 5 -0.17
  • Run Style E -0.14

Past performances

Date Track Dist Sfx Fin Beat Fig Class Comment
2026-04-19 OP 6f Dirt 3 1.5 87 95 4p;float6p upr;kept on
2026-02-07 OP 1.06m Dirt 6 7.8 86 96 Bid3p1/4;yield btw3/16
2025-12-20 RP 1.04m Dirt 4 3.8 89 95 Pace inside; weakened;
2025-11-25 ZIA 1.06m Dirt 9 59.0 34 93 Stalk;3p;faded
2025-10-18 RP 1.04m Dirt 1 6.3 92 92 Pace; much best
2025-08-28 KD 1.04m Turf 9 30.5 65 96 Up close 2p;stopped
2025-07-05 IND 1.04m Dirt 7 12.3 85 91 Inside;faded far turn
2025-05-01 CD 6f Dirt 3 6.5 93 100 Pressed 2w;lasted show
2025-01-18 FG 1.06m Dirt 7 12.5 86 99 2p;headed 3/8;gave way
2024-12-21 FG 1.06m Dirt 4 6.8 92 97 Ins winner2nd;gave way