Sat, May 2
Race 8
PDayMile-G2
Post: 3:23 · 1m · Dirt · $750K purse · 11 runners · LIVE Trifecta math uses live odds for 11 of 11 runners
New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.Pace shape
11 runnersHot pace
9 early types pressing for the lead — expect a fast pace, favors closers (P/S).
Projected speed
- #8 CREOLE CHROME (EP, QSP 8)
- #7 CROWN THE BUCKEYE (EP, QSP 8)
- #9 LOCKSTOCKNPHAROAH (EP, QSP 8)
- #1 ENGLISHMAN (E, QSP 6)
- #2 TROUBLE CALLING (EP, QSP 6)
- #11 ONE MORE FREUD (EP, QSP 6)
- #3 WORK (EP, QSP 6)
- #5 STOP THE CAR (EP, QSP 3)
- #12 BAYTOWN DREAMER (E, QSP 2)
Trifecta shape
Wide openLottery shape — low hit rates, larger payouts when they cash. Entertainment-only; the model is not confident in any structure.
1×3×3 key (top pick) on posts 6, 1, 8, 5
The model's most-likely-to-cash structure (informational — not a bet recommendation).
Cost
$6.00
6 combos
Hit prob
1.7%
simulated
Typical payout if hit
$24.96
mean $34.69
Expected ROI
-90.1%
net $-5.41
- · Most-likely-to-cash structure: 1×3×3 key (top pick) on posts [6, 1, 8, 5] — hits 1.7% of simulated runs
- · At $6 stake, a typical cash pays ≈ $25 (mean $35; trifecta payoffs are heavy-tailed). Estimated from the public pool, validated against archive payoffs.
- · Wide-open shape — anyone could hit; longshots have room.
A Top picks
6
B Contenders
1, 8, 5
C Value-edge longshots
9, 11
Other ticket structures (5)
| Ticket | Cost | Hit prob | Typical payout | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-horse box | $6.00 | 1.8% | $26.87 | -92% |
| A key, B in 2nd, A+B+C in 3rd | $12.00 | 3.0% | $26.87 | -86% |
| 1×4×4 key (top pick) | $12.00 | 3.2% | $24.96 | -89% |
| 2×4×4 part wheel | $12.00 | 3.2% | $26.76 | -90% |
| 1×5×5 key (top pick) | $20.00 | 5.0% | $26.87 | -88% |
Hit prob is the model's per-race PL distribution. "Typical payout" is the median cash, weighted by the public pool's odds (not the model's own picks) and calibrated to actual historical trifecta payoffs — so it reflects what the tote really pays, not the model's disagreement. Walk-forward backtests show pari-mutuel takeout (~16-26%) is too steep to consistently clear at this data scale — these are tipsheet outputs, not bet recommendations.
Field
↳ Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).
| PP | Horse | ML | Pred Close | Live | Pred Fig | Win | ITM% ↓ | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | APCRUDE VELOCITY | 2.5-1 | 2.0-1 | ↓1.4-1 | 94.6 | 15% | 43% | ▼-57% |
| 1 | BEENGLISHMAN | 3.0-1 | 2.4-1 | ↓1.8-1 | 89.6 | 12% | 36% | ▼-55% |
| 8 | BEPCREOLE CHROME | 8.0-1 | 8.2-1 | ↑10-1 | 88.3 | 10% | 31% | ▲+8% |
| 5 | BEPSTOP THE CAR | 20-1 | 21-1 | ↓15-1 | 88.9 | 9% | 29% | ▲+13% |
| 7 | EPCROWN THE BUCKEYE | 6.0-1 | 6.7-1 | ↑12-1 | 88.8 | 9% | 28% | ▲+9% |
| 2 | EPTROUBLE CALLING | 5.0-1 | 6.5-1 | ↑11-1 | 88.1 | 9% | 27% | ▲+6% |
| 9 | CEPLOCKSTOCKNPHAROAH | 20-1 | 24-1 | ↑31-1 | 87.6 | 9% | 27% | ▲+19% |
| 11 | CEPONE MORE FREUD | 15-1 | 13-1 | ↑40-1 | 83.6 | 8% | 25% | ▲+19% |
| 4 | PSECURED FREEDOM | 20-1 | 23-1 | ·16-1 | 88.4 | 8% | 24% | ▲+9% |
| 12 | EBAYTOWN DREAMER | 50-1 | 66-1 | ·54-1 | 81.4 | 5% | 15% | ▲+10% |
| 3 | EPWORK | 50-1 | 52-1 | ·40-1 | 79.0 | 5% | 15% | ▲+9% |
| 10 | SCREPGREAT WHITE | 12-1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. Live column: ↓ green = ≥25% shorter than ML (money horse); ↑ red = ≥25% longer (drifting). See How to Use for the math.
Ask Claude Opus
Questions about the model's predictions for Race 8 · Sat, May 2 · Churchill Downs. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.
Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.
Limited to 30 questions per day per visitor. Answers are model-generated and may be incorrect — not betting advice.