Sat, May 2
Race 9
AmerTurf-G1
Post: 4:06 · 1.06m · Turf · $1.00M purse · 13 runners · LIVE Trifecta math uses live odds for 13 of 13 runners
New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.Pace shape
13 runnersHot pace
7 early types pressing for the lead — expect a fast pace, favors closers (P/S).
Projected speed
- #14 FINAL SCORE (E, QSP 8)
- #9 HONEY DUTCH (EP, QSP 8)
- #1 STREET BEAST (EP, QSP 8)
- #13 THOUSANDSTICKS (EP, QSP 7)
- #7 ALPYLAND (EP, QSP 5)
- #8 GREENWICH VILLAGE (EP, QSP 4)
- #10 VASY (EP, QSP 4)
Trifecta shape
Wide openLottery shape — low hit rates, larger payouts when they cash. Entertainment-only; the model is not confident in any structure.
3-horse box on posts 4, 12, 7
The model's most-likely-to-cash structure (informational — not a bet recommendation).
Cost
$6.00
6 combos
Hit prob
0.9%
simulated
Typical payout if hit
$56.36
mean $66.87
Expected ROI
-89.6%
net $-5.37
- · Most-likely-to-cash structure: 3-horse box on posts [4, 12, 7] — hits 0.9% of simulated runs
- · At $6 stake, a typical cash pays ≈ $56 (mean $67; trifecta payoffs are heavy-tailed). Estimated from the public pool, validated against archive payoffs.
- · Wide-open shape — anyone could hit; longshots have room.
A Top picks
4
B Contenders
12, 7, 8
C Value-edge longshots
3, 10
Other ticket structures (5)
| Ticket | Cost | Hit prob | Typical payout | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1×3×3 key (top pick) | $6.00 | 1.0% | $27.57 | -93% |
| A key, B in 2nd, A+B+C in 3rd | $12.00 | 1.6% | $43.44 | -91% |
| 2×4×4 part wheel | $12.00 | 1.8% | $43.44 | -92% |
| 1×4×4 key (top pick) | $12.00 | 2.1% | $31.14 | -92% |
| 1×5×5 key (top pick) | $20.00 | 2.9% | $43.44 | -92% |
Hit prob is the model's per-race PL distribution. "Typical payout" is the median cash, weighted by the public pool's odds (not the model's own picks) and calibrated to actual historical trifecta payoffs — so it reflects what the tote really pays, not the model's disagreement. Walk-forward backtests show pari-mutuel takeout (~16-26%) is too steep to consistently clear at this data scale — these are tipsheet outputs, not bet recommendations.
Field
↳ Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).
| PP | Horse | ML | Pred Close | Live | Pred Fig | Win | ITM% ↓ | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | APSTARK CONTRAST | 4.0-1 | 3.5-1 | ↓1.2-1 | 91.3 | 12% | 35% | ▼-65% |
| 12 | BPREMEMBER MAMBA | 4.5-1 | 4.2-1 | ·3.5-1 | 88.7 | 10% | 29% | ▼-28% |
| 7 | BEPALPYLAND | 8.0-1 | 9.2-1 | ↑16-1 | 87.4 | 9% | 28% | ▲+13% |
| 8 | BEPGREENWICH VILLAGE | 6.0-1 | 7.2-1 | ↑8.0-1 | 87.9 | 9% | 27% | ·-1% |
| 14 | EFINAL SCORE | 8.0-1 | 7.1-1 | ·9.0-1 | 87.0 | 9% | 27% | ·+1% |
| 9 | EPHONEY DUTCH | 12-1 | 13-1 | ·13-1 | 83.9 | 7% | 22% | ·+4% |
| 10 | CEPVASY | 10-1 | 12-1 | ↑28-1 | 84.5 | 7% | 21% | ▲+12% |
| 6 | PBLACK HORNET | 20-1 | 27-1 | ·24-1 | 85.8 | 7% | 21% | ▲+10% |
| 13 | EPTHOUSANDSTICKS | 15-1 | 21-1 | ↑28-1 | 83.7 | 7% | 20% | ▲+11% |
| 2 | SLET'S BE FRANK | 30-1 | 36-1 | ·23-1 | 84.1 | 6% | 20% | ▲+9% |
| 1 | EPSTREET BEAST | 15-1 | 24-1 | ↑27-1 | 85.6 | 6% | 20% | ▲+10% |
| 3 | CSBLINGING IT BACK | 30-1 | 49-1 | ↑56-1 | 82.8 | 6% | 17% | ▲+13% |
| 11 | SSTEEL IMPERIUM | 30-1 | 41-1 | ↑73-1 | 78.4 | 4% | 14% | ▲+10% |
| 5 | SCREBLACKOUT TIME | 10-1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. Live column: ↓ green = ≥25% shorter than ML (money horse); ↑ red = ≥25% longer (drifting). See How to Use for the math.
Ask Claude Opus
Questions about the model's predictions for Race 9 · Sat, May 2 · Churchill Downs. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.
Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.
Limited to 30 questions per day per visitor. Answers are model-generated and may be incorrect — not betting advice.