Sat, May 2
Race 7
DstfTfMl-G2
Post: 2:38 · 1m · Turf · $1.00M purse · 9 runners · LIVE Trifecta math uses live odds for 9 of 9 runners
New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.Pace shape
9 runnersContested pace
3 early types — pace should be honest but not crazy. No strong style bias.
Projected speed
- #2 SWEET REBECCA (EP, QSP 7)
- #5 CLASSIC Q (EP, QSP 6)
- #7 MOVIN' ON UP (EP, QSP 5)
1 of 9 runners have no BRIS run-style code (often first-time starters); narrative may understate the true pace.
Trifecta shape
Wide openLottery shape — low hit rates, larger payouts when they cash. Entertainment-only; the model is not confident in any structure.
1×3×3 key (top pick) on posts 2, 3, 7, 8
The model's most-likely-to-cash structure (informational — not a bet recommendation).
Cost
$6.00
6 combos
Hit prob
1.9%
simulated
Typical payout if hit
$60.06
mean $66.90
Expected ROI
-78.5%
net $-4.71
- · Most-likely-to-cash structure: 1×3×3 key (top pick) on posts [2, 3, 7, 8] — hits 1.9% of simulated runs
- · At $6 stake, a typical cash pays ≈ $60 (mean $67; trifecta payoffs are heavy-tailed). Estimated from the public pool, validated against archive payoffs.
- · Wide-open shape — anyone could hit; longshots have room.
A Top picks
2, 3
B Contenders
7, 8, 4
C Value-edge longshots
6, 9
Other ticket structures (5)
| Ticket | Cost | Hit prob | Typical payout | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-horse box | $6.00 | 2.1% | $60.06 | -79% |
| 1×4×4 key (top pick) | $12.00 | 3.9% | $74.95 | -71% |
| 2×4×4 part wheel | $12.00 | 3.8% | $49.48 | -83% |
| 1×5×5 key (top pick) | $20.00 | 6.0% | $77.22 | -64% |
| 2×5×5 part wheel | $24.00 | 7.5% | $54.43 | -79% |
Hit prob is the model's per-race PL distribution. "Typical payout" is the median cash, weighted by the public pool's odds (not the model's own picks) and calibrated to actual historical trifecta payoffs — so it reflects what the tote really pays, not the model's disagreement. Walk-forward backtests show pari-mutuel takeout (~16-26%) is too steep to consistently clear at this data scale — these are tipsheet outputs, not bet recommendations.
Field
↳ Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).
| PP | Horse | ML | Pred Close | Live | Pred Fig | Win | ITM% ↓ | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | AEPSWEET REBECCA | 2.5-1 | 2.0-1 | ↑4.5-1 | 90.5 | 14% | 40% | ▼-7% |
| 3 | APPORTFOLIO DURATION | 4.0-1 | 3.5-1 | ↓2.0-1 | 89.2 | 13% | 38% | ▼-47% |
| 7 | BEPMOVIN' ON UP | 12-1 | 13-1 | ↓6.0-1 | 90.5 | 13% | 38% | ·+1% |
| 8 | BSPIN UP BETTY | 3.5-1 | 4.2-1 | ·4.0-1 | 90.7 | 12% | 35% | ▼-16% |
| 4 | BTEMPTABLE | 8.0-1 | 7.9-1 | ·8.0-1 | 88.7 | 11% | 34% | ▲+6% |
| 9 | CSMAGGIE GO | 8.0-1 | 8.2-1 | ↑12-1 | 87.6 | 10% | 32% | ▲+12% |
| 5 | EPCLASSIC Q | 6.0-1 | 8.7-1 | ·6.0-1 | 87.3 | 10% | 31% | ▼-6% |
| 6 | CSVINA ARANA | 20-1 | 24-1 | ↑27-1 | 86.7 | 9% | 28% | ▲+19% |
| 1 | PITALIAN SOIREE | 10-1 | 13-1 | ↑16-1 | 84.2 | 8% | 25% | ▲+10% |
Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. Live column: ↓ green = ≥25% shorter than ML (money horse); ↑ red = ≥25% longer (drifting). See How to Use for the math.
Ask Claude Opus
Questions about the model's predictions for Race 7 · Sat, May 2 · Churchill Downs. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.
Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.
Limited to 30 questions per day per visitor. Answers are model-generated and may be incorrect — not betting advice.