John-Z's Overlay · Trifecta ATM
← Churchill Downs R8

PP 3

WORK

C '23 · AMERICAN PHAROAH × WITH MISCHIEF

Trainer: O'NEILL DOUG · Jockey: MALDONADO E

Today's prediction

79.0

Speed fig

14.9%

In-the-money

Last 6 races

Why this prediction?

Base prediction: 76.4 fig points

Pushing prediction up

  • BRIS Prime Power +3.11
  • Mean Class Par Last 5 +0.69
  • Mean Late Pace Last 5 +0.34
  • BRIS Turf Pedigree +0.28
  • Distance Change From Last +0.27

Pushing prediction down

  • Speed Fig On Todays Surface Mean -1.08
  • Today Purse Log10 -0.76
  • Trouble Adjusted Speed Fig Last 5 -0.47
  • Mean Pace 4f Last 5 -0.19
  • Today Field Size -0.19

Past performances

Date Track Dist Sfx Fin Beat Fig Class Comment
2026-03-14 CNL 1.13m Dirt 8 21.0 76 94 Forced pace ins; tired
2026-02-15 SA 6.5f Turf 1 0.3 79 88 Shift5w;rally;led;held
2026-01-18 SA 6f Turf 5 5.8 82 88 Duel outsd;led;weaknd
2025-11-30 DMR 1.13m Turf 11 18.5 70 81 Bid2w7/16;turned away
2025-10-13 SA 1m Dirt 6 37.5 53 91 Duel inside; retreated
2025-09-27 SA 6f Dirt 5 12.0 67 91 Prss btwn;chsd;bpd3/16