Fri, May 1
Race 6
OClm 125000n1x
Post: 3:12 · 6.5f · Dirt · $127K purse · 8 runners · LIVE Trifecta math uses live odds for 8 of 8 runners
New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.Pace shape
8 runnersContested pace
4 early types — pace should be honest but not crazy. No strong style bias.
Projected speed
- #4 COLOR COMIN' IN (EP, QSP 6)
- #6 CARMEL COAST (E, QSP 4)
- #8 ESSENTIAL COFFEE (E, QSP 4)
- #12 FRENCH BLUE (E, QSP 3)
Trifecta shape
Wide openLottery shape — low hit rates, larger payouts when they cash. Entertainment-only; the model is not confident in any structure.
3-horse box on posts 5, 6, 2
The model's most-likely-to-cash structure (informational — not a bet recommendation).
Cost
$6.00
6 combos
Hit prob
5.3%
simulated
Typical payout if hit
$52.81
mean $62.03
Expected ROI
-44.9%
net $-2.70
- · Most-likely-to-cash structure: 3-horse box on posts [5, 6, 2] — hits 5.3% of simulated runs
- · At $6 stake, a typical cash pays ≈ $53 (mean $62; trifecta payoffs are heavy-tailed). Estimated from the public pool, validated against archive payoffs.
- · Wide-open shape — anyone could hit; longshots have room.
A Top picks
5
B Contenders
6, 2, 12
C Value-edge longshots
8, 13
Other ticket structures (5)
| Ticket | Cost | Hit prob | Typical payout | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1×3×3 key (top pick) | $6.00 | 5.7% | $10.91 | -80% |
| 1×4×4 key (top pick) | $12.00 | 10.4% | $32.30 | -74% |
| A key, B in 2nd, A+B+C in 3rd | $12.00 | 10.2% | $32.30 | -74% |
| 2×4×4 part wheel | $12.00 | 9.5% | $14.08 | -79% |
| 1×5×5 key (top pick) | $20.00 | 15.8% | $32.72 | -71% |
Hit prob is the model's per-race PL distribution. "Typical payout" is the median cash, weighted by the public pool's odds (not the model's own picks) and calibrated to actual historical trifecta payoffs — so it reflects what the tote really pays, not the model's disagreement. Walk-forward backtests show pari-mutuel takeout (~16-26%) is too steep to consistently clear at this data scale — these are tipsheet outputs, not bet recommendations.
Field
↳ Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).
| PP | Horse | ML | Pred Close | Live | Pred Fig | Win | ITM% ↓ | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | APPAIGE TURNER | 4.0-1 | 2.9-1 | ↓1.2-1 | 87.2 | 25% | 64% | ▼-36% |
| 6 | BECARMEL COAST | 3.0-1 | 2.8-1 | ·3.5-1 | 83.8 | 15% | 45% | ▼-12% |
| 2 | BSCAMILA CATALINA | 20-1 | 26-1 | ↓14-1 | 81.7 | 12% | 39% | ▲+22% |
| 12 | BEFRENCH BLUE | 4.5-1 | 5.7-1 | ↓3.0-1 | 82.2 | 12% | 36% | ▼-27% |
| 13 | CPBLUE FLAME SIX | 20-1 | 28-1 | ↓13-1 | 78.3 | 11% | 34% | ▲+16% |
| 11 | POUR TWO GIRLS | 20-1 | 31-1 | ↓11-1 | 77.4 | 10% | 32% | ▲+11% |
| 8 | CEESSENTIAL COFFEE | 20-1 | 21-1 | ·16-1 | 77.3 | 10% | 31% | ▲+16% |
| 4 | EPCOLOR COMIN' IN | 30-1 | 42-1 | ↓21-1 | 70.2 | 5% | 18% | ▲+6% |
| 1 | SCREWHERE LUCK LIVES | 6.0-1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 3 | SCRENIMAH | 8.0-1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 7 | SCREPKAYLA'S KOMET | 50-1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 9 | SCRESTEER CLEAR | 10-1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 10 | SCREGETTING CLOSER | 30-1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 14 | SCREPHEAVEN'S BOLT | 30-1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 15 | SCRPDON'T DO IT LUCY | 30-1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. Live column: ↓ green = ≥25% shorter than ML (money horse); ↑ red = ≥25% longer (drifting). See How to Use for the math.
Ask Claude Opus
Questions about the model's predictions for Race 6 · Fri, May 1 · Churchill Downs. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.
Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.
Limited to 30 questions per day per visitor. Answers are model-generated and may be incorrect — not betting advice.