Derby 2026
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PP 8

ESSENTIAL COFFEE

F '23 · NYQUIST × WINDING WAY

Trainer: ASMUSSEN STEVEN M · Jockey: GEROUX FLORENT

Today's prediction

82.7

Speed fig

21.9%

In-the-money

Last 5 races

Why this prediction?

Base prediction: 83.2 fig points

Pushing prediction up

  • Mean Speed Fig Last 3 +0.67
  • Max Speed Fig Career +0.59
  • Days Since Last Race +0.49
  • Speed Fig At Similar Distance Mean +0.40
  • Speed Fig Consistency +0.37

Pushing prediction down

  • BRIS Prime Power -1.58
  • Speed Fig On Todays Surface Mean -0.46
  • Mean Speed Fig Last 5 -0.37
  • Mean Pace 4f Last 5 -0.31
  • Mean Late Pace Last 5 -0.27

Past performances

Date Track Dist Sfx Fin Beat Fig Class Comment
2025-11-29 CD 1.06m Dirt 94 Stumbled st;lost rider
2025-10-15 KEE 7f Dirt 1 1.0 88 86 Ins;clear upr;held swy
2025-08-10 SAR 6.5f Dirt 3 16.0 64 85 Chased 6-5w; weakened
2025-06-29 CD 6f Dirt 7 20.8 53 90 Veer;vie ins;brsh;cave
2025-05-30 CD 5f Dirt 1 8.5 83 84 Shift in 7/16;rddn out