John-Z's Overlay · Trifecta ATM
← Churchill Downs R6

PP 8

ESSENTIAL COFFEE

F '23 · NYQUIST × WINDING WAY

Trainer: ASMUSSEN STEVEN M · Jockey: GEROUX FLORENT

Today's prediction

77.3

Speed fig

31.3%

In-the-money

Last 5 races

Why this prediction?

Base prediction: 76.4 fig points

Pushing prediction up

  • BRIS Prime Power +3.74
  • Last Speed Fig +0.53
  • Today Track Code +0.45
  • Mean Class Par Last 5 +0.26
  • Speed Fig Consistency +0.25

Pushing prediction down

  • Today Field Size -1.20
  • Mean Speed Fig Last 3 -0.56
  • Field Size Change From Last -0.55
  • Mean Trouble Last 5 -0.53
  • Speed Fig On Todays Surface Mean -0.52

Past performances

Date Track Dist Sfx Fin Beat Fig Class Comment
2025-11-29 CD 1.06m Dirt 94 Stumbled st;lost rider
2025-10-15 KEE 7f Dirt 1 1.0 88 86 Ins;clear upr;held swy
2025-08-10 SAR 6.5f Dirt 3 16.0 64 85 Chased 6-5w; weakened
2025-06-29 CD 6f Dirt 7 20.8 53 90 Veer;vie ins;brsh;cave
2025-05-30 CD 5f Dirt 1 8.5 83 84 Shift in 7/16;rddn out