Fri, May 1
Race 7
UnbdlSdn-G2
Post: 3:48 · 5.5f · Turf · $500K purse · 7 runners · LIVE Trifecta math uses live odds for 7 of 7 runners
New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.Pace shape
7 runnersContested pace
3 early types — pace should be honest but not crazy. No strong style bias.
Projected speed
- #6 SHISOSPICY (E, QSP 7)
- #7 HAULIN ICE (EP, QSP 7)
- #8 MOON SPUN (E, QSP 7)
Trifecta shape
Wide openLottery shape — low hit rates, larger payouts when they cash. Entertainment-only; the model is not confident in any structure.
3-horse box on posts 6, 5, 7
The model's most-likely-to-cash structure (informational — not a bet recommendation).
Cost
$6.00
6 combos
Hit prob
5.4%
simulated
Typical payout if hit
$15.30
mean $23.44
Expected ROI
-78.9%
net $-4.74
- · Most-likely-to-cash structure: 3-horse box on posts [6, 5, 7] — hits 5.4% of simulated runs
- · At $6 stake, a typical cash pays ≈ $15 (mean $23; trifecta payoffs are heavy-tailed). Estimated from the public pool, validated against archive payoffs.
- · Wide-open shape — anyone could hit; longshots have room.
A Top picks
6
B Contenders
5, 7, 3
C Value-edge longshots
9, 4
Other ticket structures (5)
| Ticket | Cost | Hit prob | Typical payout | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1×3×3 key (top pick) | $6.00 | 5.1% | $16.67 | -83% |
| 2×4×4 part wheel | $12.00 | 9.8% | $20.81 | -77% |
| 1×4×4 key (top pick) | $12.00 | 9.6% | $16.67 | -83% |
| A key, B in 2nd, A+B+C in 3rd | $12.00 | 9.5% | $15.39 | -83% |
| 1×5×5 key (top pick) | $20.00 | 15.4% | $18.97 | -81% |
Hit prob is the model's per-race PL distribution. "Typical payout" is the median cash, weighted by the public pool's odds (not the model's own picks) and calibrated to actual historical trifecta payoffs — so it reflects what the tote really pays, not the model's disagreement. Walk-forward backtests show pari-mutuel takeout (~16-26%) is too steep to consistently clear at this data scale — these are tipsheet outputs, not bet recommendations.
Field
↳ Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).
| PP | Horse | ML | Pred Close | Live | Pred Fig | Win | ITM% ↓ | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | AESHISOSPICY | 1.8-1 | 1.3-1 | ↓0.5-1 | 95.5 | 20% | 56% | ▼-44% |
| 5 | BPQUEEN MAXIMA | 3.5-1 | 3.5-1 | ↑4.5-1 | 93.7 | 17% | 50% | ·+3% |
| 7 | BEPHAULIN ICE | 6.0-1 | 6.7-1 | ↑9.0-1 | 93.4 | 14% | 43% | ▲+18% |
| 3 | BSTIME TO DAZZLE | 15-1 | 13-1 | ·12-1 | 89.9 | 13% | 41% | ▲+22% |
| 4 | CPCREED'S GOLD | 20-1 | 23-1 | ↓10-1 | 91.1 | 13% | 40% | ▲+17% |
| 9 | CPSHOOT IT TRUE | 6.0-1 | 5.9-1 | ↑11-1 | 89.2 | 13% | 39% | ▲+18% |
| 8 | EMOON SPUN | 4.0-1 | 4.2-1 | ↑13-1 | 87.6 | 10% | 31% | ▲+13% |
| 1 | SCREPMAE TOWN | 20-1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2 | SCRPBUTTERCREAM BABE | 15-1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. Live column: ↓ green = ≥25% shorter than ML (money horse); ↑ red = ≥25% longer (drifting). See How to Use for the math.
Ask Claude Opus
Questions about the model's predictions for Race 7 · Fri, May 1 · Churchill Downs. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.
Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.
Limited to 30 questions per day per visitor. Answers are model-generated and may be incorrect — not betting advice.