Fri, May 1
Race 5
Md Sp Wt
Post: 2:35 · 1m · Turf · $120K purse · 12 runners
New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.Pace shape
12 runnersContested pace
4 early types — pace should be honest but not crazy. No strong style bias.
Projected speed
- #4 POWELL RIVER (E, QSP 6)
- #9 CASH BONUS (E, QSP 6)
- #7 CULTURE WAR (EP, QSP 5)
- #13 TIMAYYYY (E, QSP 4)
1 of 12 runners have no BRIS run-style code (often first-time starters); narrative may understate the true pace.
Trifecta shape
Wide openLottery shape — low hit rates, larger payouts when they cash. Entertainment-only; the model is not confident in any structure.
1×3×3 key (top pick) on posts 5, 10, 6, 1
The model's most-likely-to-cash structure (informational — not a bet recommendation).
Cost
$6.00
6 combos
Hit prob
1.0%
simulated
Typical payout if hit
$179.21
mean $204.42
Expected ROI
-65.1%
net $-3.91
- · Most-likely-to-cash structure: 1×3×3 key (top pick) on posts [5, 10, 6, 1] — hits 1.0% of simulated runs
- · At $6 stake, a typical cash pays ≈ $179 (mean $204; trifecta payoffs are heavy-tailed). Estimated from the public pool, validated against archive payoffs.
- · Wide-open shape — anyone could hit; longshots have room.
A Top picks
5, 10
B Contenders
6, 1, 11
C Value-edge longshots
3
Other ticket structures (5)
| Ticket | Cost | Hit prob | Typical payout | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-horse box | $6.00 | 1.0% | $128.75 | -77% |
| 1×4×4 key (top pick) | $12.00 | 2.0% | $179.21 | -65% |
| 2×4×4 part wheel | $12.00 | 2.1% | $146.26 | -75% |
| 1×5×5 key (top pick) | $20.00 | 3.1% | $179.21 | -49% |
| A key, B in 2nd, A+B+C in 3rd | $24.00 | 3.7% | $90.77 | -74% |
Hit prob is the model's per-race PL distribution. "Typical payout" is the median cash, weighted by the public pool's odds (not the model's own picks) and calibrated to actual historical trifecta payoffs — so it reflects what the tote really pays, not the model's disagreement. Walk-forward backtests show pari-mutuel takeout (~16-26%) is too steep to consistently clear at this data scale — these are tipsheet outputs, not bet recommendations.
Field
↳ Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).
| PP | Horse | ML | Pred Close | Pred Fig | Win | ITM% ↓ | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | ASFLICK | 10-1 | 9.3-1 | 80.7 | 12% | 34% | ▲+11% |
| 10 | ASPREPPED | 3.0-1 | 2.8-1 | 79.9 | 11% | 33% | ▼-31% |
| 6 | BPEXECUTIVE | 4.0-1 | 5.3-1 | 78.4 | 10% | 30% | ▼-21% |
| 1 | BSBRIDGESONG | 8.0-1 | 6.8-1 | 78.0 | 10% | 29% | ·+1% |
| 11 | BSROYAL GUARD | 5.0-1 | 5.3-1 | 75.7 | 9% | 27% | ▼-16% |
| 3 | CGRANDE SORPRESO | 30-1 | 35-1 | 77.1 | 9% | 26% | ▲+17% |
| 4 | EPOWELL RIVER | 8.0-1 | 7.8-1 | 74.2 | 8% | 24% | ·-4% |
| 9 | ECASH BONUS | 15-1 | 25-1 | 73.4 | 7% | 22% | ▲+6% |
| 2 | SCLARK'S CORNER | 12-1 | 16-1 | 74.2 | 6% | 20% | ·+0% |
| 7 | EPCULTURE WAR | 20-1 | 35-1 | 73.3 | 6% | 19% | ▲+7% |
| 13 | ETIMAYYYY | 8.0-1 | 13-1 | 72.8 | 6% | 18% | ▼-10% |
| 8 | PWAR AND MAJESTY | 8.0-1 | 10-1 | 72.6 | 6% | 18% | ▼-10% |
| 12 | SCRHILL COUNTRY | 50-1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 14 | SCRSDROP SHOT | 20-1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 15 | SCREAPOLLO'S GLORY | 30-1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 16 | SCRPWEMBLEY AVENUE | 15-1 | — | — | — | — | — |
Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. See How to Use for the math.
Ask Claude Opus
Questions about the model's predictions for Race 5 · Fri, May 1 · Churchill Downs. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.
Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.
Limited to 30 questions per day per visitor. Answers are model-generated and may be incorrect — not betting advice.