Fri, May 1
Race 12
Edgewood-G2
Post: 7:40 · 1.06m · Turf · $600K purse · 13 runners · LIVE Trifecta math uses live odds for 13 of 13 runners
New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.Pace shape
13 runnersContested pace
4 early types — pace should be honest but not crazy. No strong style bias.
Projected speed
- #6 TAM TAM (EP, QSP 7)
- #4 LORELEI LEE (EP, QSP 6)
- #5 JUST ALOOF (EP, QSP 5)
- #12 TAKEN BY THE WIND (EP, QSP 5)
Trifecta shape
Wide openLottery shape — low hit rates, larger payouts when they cash. Entertainment-only; the model is not confident in any structure.
3-horse box on posts 3, 11, 8
The model's most-likely-to-cash structure (informational — not a bet recommendation).
Cost
$6.00
6 combos
Hit prob
0.8%
simulated
Typical payout if hit
$84.22
mean $87.65
Expected ROI
-88.5%
net $-5.31
- · Most-likely-to-cash structure: 3-horse box on posts [3, 11, 8] — hits 0.8% of simulated runs
- · At $6 stake, a typical cash pays ≈ $84 (mean $88; trifecta payoffs are heavy-tailed). Estimated from the public pool, validated against archive payoffs.
- · Wide-open shape — anyone could hit; longshots have room.
A Top picks
3, 11
B Contenders
8, 5, 13
C Value-edge longshots
2, 14
Other ticket structures (5)
| Ticket | Cost | Hit prob | Typical payout | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1×3×3 key (top pick) | $6.00 | 0.8% | $57.51 | -92% |
| 1×4×4 key (top pick) | $12.00 | 1.7% | $71.97 | -90% |
| 2×4×4 part wheel | $12.00 | 1.5% | $71.97 | -91% |
| 1×5×5 key (top pick) | $20.00 | 2.5% | $79.08 | -89% |
| 2×5×5 part wheel | $24.00 | 3.1% | $79.08 | -87% |
Hit prob is the model's per-race PL distribution. "Typical payout" is the median cash, weighted by the public pool's odds (not the model's own picks) and calibrated to actual historical trifecta payoffs — so it reflects what the tote really pays, not the model's disagreement. Walk-forward backtests show pari-mutuel takeout (~16-26%) is too steep to consistently clear at this data scale — these are tipsheet outputs, not bet recommendations.
Field
↳ Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).
| PP | Horse | ML | Pred Close | Live | Pred Fig | Win | ITM% ↓ | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | APIMAGINATIONTHELADY | 4.0-1 | 3.0-1 | ↓2.0-1 | 89.4 | 11% | 31% | ▼-54% |
| 11 | ASTIME TO DREAM | 5.0-1 | 4.9-1 | ↑7.0-1 | 89.5 | 10% | 28% | ·-4% |
| 8 | BPLION LAKE | 8.0-1 | 8.6-1 | ↓5.0-1 | 89.2 | 9% | 27% | ▼-15% |
| 5 | BEPJUST ALOOF | 8.0-1 | 7.1-1 | ↓4.0-1 | 87.6 | 9% | 27% | ▼-24% |
| 13 | BPINDIGO WOODS | 15-1 | 14-1 | ↓10-1 | 87.9 | 9% | 26% | ·+3% |
| 9 | SDANDONA | 6.0-1 | 5.1-1 | ↑11-1 | 88.2 | 9% | 26% | ·+5% |
| 1 | SSTORM'S WAKE | 6.0-1 | 6.8-1 | ↑9.0-1 | 89.5 | 9% | 25% | ·-0% |
| 4 | EPLORELEI LEE | 15-1 | 14-1 | ·17-1 | 82.8 | 7% | 20% | ▲+6% |
| 2 | CPCONNECT THE STARS | 30-1 | 41-1 | ↑38-1 | 85.7 | 7% | 20% | ▲+13% |
| 6 | EPTAM TAM | 15-1 | 19-1 | ↑21-1 | 85.0 | 7% | 20% | ▲+8% |
| 14 | CPTO A FLAME | 20-1 | 28-1 | ↑34-1 | 84.3 | 6% | 17% | ▲+10% |
| 10 | SBOHEMIAN | 20-1 | 37-1 | ↑34-1 | 83.6 | 5% | 17% | ▲+9% |
| 12 | EPTAKEN BY THE WIND | 30-1 | 37-1 | ·33-1 | 79.6 | 5% | 15% | ▲+7% |
| 7 | SCRSLOVELY GREY | 15-1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. Live column: ↓ green = ≥25% shorter than ML (money horse); ↑ red = ≥25% longer (drifting). See How to Use for the math.
Ask Claude Opus
Questions about the model's predictions for Race 12 · Fri, May 1 · Churchill Downs. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.
Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.
Limited to 30 questions per day per visitor. Answers are model-generated and may be incorrect — not betting advice.