Fri, May 1
Race 11
LaTroien-G1
Post: 6:56 · 1.06m · Dirt · $1.00M purse · 10 runners · LIVE Trifecta math uses live odds for 10 of 10 runners
New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.Pace shape
10 runnersHot pace
6 early types pressing for the lead — expect a fast pace, favors closers (P/S).
Projected speed
- #5 SHRED THE GNAR (E, QSP 7)
- #4 MISS JUSTIFY (EP, QSP 7)
- #1 BLESS THE BROKEN (EP, QSP 6)
- #3 NERAZURRI (E, QSP 6)
- #9 FULLY SUBSCRIBED (EP, QSP 5)
- #8 DRY POWDER (EP, QSP 5)
Trifecta shape
Wide openLottery shape — low hit rates, larger payouts when they cash. Entertainment-only; the model is not confident in any structure.
1×3×3 key (top pick) on posts 9, 5, 2, 7
The model's most-likely-to-cash structure (informational — not a bet recommendation).
Cost
$6.00
6 combos
Hit prob
1.4%
simulated
Typical payout if hit
$64.68
mean $82.34
Expected ROI
-81.5%
net $-4.89
- · Most-likely-to-cash structure: 1×3×3 key (top pick) on posts [9, 5, 2, 7] — hits 1.4% of simulated runs
- · At $6 stake, a typical cash pays ≈ $65 (mean $82; trifecta payoffs are heavy-tailed). Estimated from the public pool, validated against archive payoffs.
- · Wide-open shape — anyone could hit; longshots have room.
A Top picks
9, 5
B Contenders
2, 7, 1
C Value-edge longshots
6, 3
Other ticket structures (5)
| Ticket | Cost | Hit prob | Typical payout | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-horse box | $6.00 | 1.5% | $64.68 | -83% |
| 2×4×4 part wheel | $12.00 | 2.6% | $64.68 | -81% |
| 1×4×4 key (top pick) | $12.00 | 2.6% | $52.60 | -89% |
| 1×5×5 key (top pick) | $20.00 | 4.1% | $52.60 | -88% |
| 4-horse box | $24.00 | 5.1% | $77.70 | -75% |
Hit prob is the model's per-race PL distribution. "Typical payout" is the median cash, weighted by the public pool's odds (not the model's own picks) and calibrated to actual historical trifecta payoffs — so it reflects what the tote really pays, not the model's disagreement. Walk-forward backtests show pari-mutuel takeout (~16-26%) is too steep to consistently clear at this data scale — these are tipsheet outputs, not bet recommendations.
Field
↳ Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).
| PP | Horse | ML | Pred Close | Live | Pred Fig | Win | ITM% ↓ | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | AEPFULLY SUBSCRIBED | 3.5-1 | 3.0-1 | ↓2.0-1 | 92.8 | 14% | 39% | ▼-46% |
| 5 | AESHRED THE GNAR | 3.0-1 | 2.4-1 | ·3.0-1 | 92.0 | 12% | 35% | ▼-29% |
| 2 | BPSCALABLE | 8.0-1 | 9.6-1 | ↑10-1 | 90.9 | 10% | 31% | ▲+8% |
| 7 | BPCHASTEN | 6.0-1 | 6.3-1 | ↑12-1 | 89.5 | 10% | 30% | ▲+11% |
| 1 | BEPBLESS THE BROKEN | 4.5-1 | 5.0-1 | ↓3.0-1 | 88.5 | 10% | 29% | ▼-34% |
| 8 | EPDRY POWDER | 12-1 | 12-1 | ↓9.0-1 | 91.0 | 9% | 28% | ·+3% |
| 4 | EPMISS JUSTIFY | 15-1 | 15-1 | ↑19-1 | 87.6 | 9% | 28% | ▲+15% |
| 3 | CENERAZURRI | 20-1 | 33-1 | ↑26-1 | 89.9 | 9% | 27% | ▲+18% |
| 11 | SDREXEL HILL | 15-1 | 20-1 | ·15-1 | 88.2 | 9% | 27% | ▲+11% |
| 6 | CPTAKE CHARGE OMAHA | 30-1 | 42-1 | ↑39-1 | 86.8 | 9% | 26% | ▲+20% |
| 10 | SCRESNOWYTE | 10-1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. Live column: ↓ green = ≥25% shorter than ML (money horse); ↑ red = ≥25% longer (drifting). See How to Use for the math.
Ask Claude Opus
Questions about the model's predictions for Race 11 · Fri, May 1 · Churchill Downs. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.
Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.
Limited to 30 questions per day per visitor. Answers are model-generated and may be incorrect — not betting advice.