John-Z's Overlay · Trifecta ATM
← Churchill Downs R12

PP 14

TO A FLAME

F '23 · JUSTIFY × MOTH

Trainer: ARNOLD GEORGE R II · Jockey: MORALES EDGAR

Today's prediction

84.3

Speed fig

17.1%

In-the-money

Last 4 races

Why this prediction?

Base prediction: 76.4 fig points

Pushing prediction up

  • BRIS Prime Power +6.84
  • Speed Fig On Todays Surface Mean +0.61
  • Today Track Code +0.59
  • Mean Speed Fig Last 3 +0.56
  • Trouble Adjusted Speed Fig Last 5 +0.50

Pushing prediction down

  • Today Field Size -0.68
  • Mean Class Par Last 5 -0.66
  • Today Post Position -0.44
  • Today Purse Log10 -0.36
  • Field Size Change From Last -0.21

Past performances

Date Track Dist Sfx Fin Beat Fig Class Comment
2026-04-04 KEE 1m Turf 7 3.0 87 89 3p;bid btw;5-6p;faded
2026-03-07 GP 1m Turf 1 1.5 81 86 Ins;bxd;split1/8;clear
2025-08-31 KD 1m Turf 3 0.3 84 81 Alter in 1/8;bid btwn
2025-07-20 ELP 1m Dirt 1 0.5 72 72 Ins;bid 2w1/4;determnd