Fri, May 1
Race 13
KyOaks-G1
Post: 8:40 · 1.13m · Dirt · $1.50M purse · 13 runners · LIVE Trifecta math uses live odds for 13 of 13 runners
New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.Pace shape
13 runnersHot pace
10 early types pressing for the lead — expect a fast pace, favors closers (P/S).
Projected speed
- #1 EXPLORA (EP, QSP 8)
- #7 DAZZLING DAME (E, QSP 8)
- #10 PROM QUEEN (EP, QSP 6)
- #5 MEANING (EP, QSP 6)
- #3 SEARCH PARTY (EP, QSP 6)
- #14 BROOKLYN BLONDE (E, QSP 6)
- #2 ZANY (EP, QSP 5)
- #11 PERCY'S BAR (EP, QSP 5)
- #13 PASHMINA (EP, QSP 5)
- #4 COUNTING STARS (EP, QSP 4)
Trifecta shape
Wide openLottery shape — low hit rates, larger payouts when they cash. Entertainment-only; the model is not confident in any structure.
1×3×3 key (top pick) on posts 2, 1, 10, 5
The model's most-likely-to-cash structure (informational — not a bet recommendation).
Cost
$6.00
6 combos
Hit prob
0.7%
simulated
Typical payout if hit
$181.76
mean $178.01
Expected ROI
-77.9%
net $-4.68
- · Most-likely-to-cash structure: 1×3×3 key (top pick) on posts [2, 1, 10, 5] — hits 0.7% of simulated runs
- · At $6 stake, a typical cash pays ≈ $182 (mean $178; trifecta payoffs are heavy-tailed). Estimated from the public pool, validated against archive payoffs.
- · Wide-open shape — anyone could hit; longshots have room.
A Top picks
2, 1
B Contenders
10, 5, 9
C Value-edge longshots
3, 7
Other ticket structures (5)
| Ticket | Cost | Hit prob | Typical payout | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-horse box | $6.00 | 0.8% | $145.01 | -81% |
| 2×4×4 part wheel | $12.00 | 1.5% | $181.76 | -77% |
| 1×4×4 key (top pick) | $12.00 | 1.5% | $141.37 | -81% |
| 1×5×5 key (top pick) | $20.00 | 2.2% | $176.64 | -80% |
| 4-horse box | $24.00 | 2.8% | $198.40 | -77% |
Hit prob is the model's per-race PL distribution. "Typical payout" is the median cash, weighted by the public pool's odds (not the model's own picks) and calibrated to actual historical trifecta payoffs — so it reflects what the tote really pays, not the model's disagreement. Walk-forward backtests show pari-mutuel takeout (~16-26%) is too steep to consistently clear at this data scale — these are tipsheet outputs, not bet recommendations.
Field
↳ Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).
| PP | Horse | ML | Pred Close | Live | Pred Fig | Win | ITM% ↓ | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | AEPZANY | 4.0-1 | 3.8-1 | ·4.5-1 | 88.2 | 10% | 31% | ▼-16% |
| 1 | AEPEXPLORA | 6.0-1 | 6.1-1 | ·6.0-1 | 90.1 | 10% | 29% | ▼-7% |
| 10 | BEPPROM QUEEN | 8.0-1 | 8.3-1 | ↓5.0-1 | 86.6 | 9% | 27% | ▼-15% |
| 5 | BEPMEANING | 5.0-1 | 5.9-1 | ↑8.0-1 | 88.3 | 8% | 25% | ·-3% |
| 9 | BSALWAYS A RUNNER | 10-1 | 8.8-1 | ↓4.5-1 | 85.9 | 8% | 24% | ▼-23% |
| 4 | EPCOUNTING STARS | 8.0-1 | 8.4-1 | ↑10-1 | 85.7 | 8% | 23% | ·-0% |
| 11 | EPPERCY'S BAR | 6.0-1 | 7.8-1 | ·5.0-1 | 85.4 | 7% | 21% | ▼-21% |
| 7 | CEDAZZLING DAME | 30-1 | 32-1 | ·37-1 | 84.3 | 7% | 21% | ▲+15% |
| 3 | CEPSEARCH PARTY | 30-1 | 34-1 | ↑40-1 | 84.8 | 7% | 21% | ▲+15% |
| 13 | EPPASHMINA | 30-1 | 41-1 | ↓20-1 | 85.1 | 7% | 21% | ▲+9% |
| 14 | EBROOKLYN BLONDE | 30-1 | 44-1 | ·36-1 | 83.3 | 6% | 20% | ▲+13% |
| 15 | SLOVELY GREY | 30-1 | 43-1 | ↓11-1 | 84.3 | 6% | 18% | ·-3% |
| 17 | PRESIST | 30-1 | 40-1 | ↑47-1 | 81.4 | 6% | 18% | ▲+12% |
| 6 | SCREPMY MISS MO | 20-1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 8 | SCREPBOTTLE OF ROUGE | 15-1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 12 | SCREPBELLA BALLERINA | 12-1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 16 | SCRSNYCON | 50-1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. Live column: ↓ green = ≥25% shorter than ML (money horse); ↑ red = ≥25% longer (drifting). See How to Use for the math.
Ask Claude Opus
Questions about the model's predictions for Race 13 · Fri, May 1 · Churchill Downs. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.
Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.
Limited to 30 questions per day per visitor. Answers are model-generated and may be incorrect — not betting advice.