Wed, Apr 29
Race 10
Clm 30000n2l
Post: 5:27 · 1.06m · Turf · $62K purse · 16 runners
New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.Pace shape
16 runnersHot pace
6 early types pressing for the lead — expect a fast pace, favors closers (P/S).
Projected speed
- #15 MENKAURE (EP, QSP 8)
- #2 AUSTIN HIGH (E, QSP 8)
- #14 BINDI (E, QSP 8)
- #13 TEXAS HOLIDAY (E, QSP 5)
- #10 KITTENS STORMY GAL (E, QSP 5)
- #6 NEVER REALLY KNOW (E, QSP 4)
Trifecta shape
Wide openLottery shape — low hit rates, larger payouts when they cash. Entertainment-only; the model is not confident in any structure.
3-horse box on posts 9, 6, 4
The model's most-likely-to-cash structure (informational — not a bet recommendation).
Cost
$6.00
6 combos
Hit prob
0.7%
simulated
Typical payout if hit
$92.22
mean $99.11
Expected ROI
-87.9%
net $-5.27
- · Most-likely-to-cash structure: 3-horse box on posts [9, 6, 4] — hits 0.7% of simulated runs
- · At $6 stake, a typical cash pays ≈ $92 (mean $99; trifecta payoffs are heavy-tailed). Estimated from the public pool, validated against archive payoffs.
- · Wide-open shape — anyone could hit; longshots have room.
A Top picks
9, 6
B Contenders
4, 12, 15
C Value-edge longshots
5
Other ticket structures (5)
| Ticket | Cost | Hit prob | Typical payout | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1×3×3 key (top pick) | $6.00 | 0.7% | $55.67 | -91% |
| 2×4×4 part wheel | $12.00 | 1.4% | $69.54 | -90% |
| 1×4×4 key (top pick) | $12.00 | 1.2% | $85.06 | -90% |
| 1×5×5 key (top pick) | $20.00 | 1.8% | $85.06 | -91% |
| A key, B in 2nd, A+B+C in 3rd | $24.00 | 2.2% | $114.54 | -82% |
Hit prob is the model's per-race PL distribution. "Typical payout" is the median cash, weighted by the public pool's odds (not the model's own picks) and calibrated to actual historical trifecta payoffs — so it reflects what the tote really pays, not the model's disagreement. Walk-forward backtests show pari-mutuel takeout (~16-26%) is too steep to consistently clear at this data scale — these are tipsheet outputs, not bet recommendations.
Field
↳ Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).
| PP | Horse | ML | Pred Close | Pred Fig | Win | ITM% ↓ | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | APTWOLATEBABYDOLL | 2.5-1 | 1.9-1 | 74.4 | 10% | 29% | ▼-44% |
| 6 | AENEVER REALLY KNOW | 3.5-1 | 3.2-1 | 72.5 | 9% | 27% | ▼-30% |
| 4 | BSOAK ALLEY | 8.0-1 | 11-1 | 77.0 | 9% | 26% | ·-2% |
| 12 | BSHEART SPIN | 4.5-1 | 6.8-1 | 77.6 | 9% | 26% | ▼-20% |
| 15 | BEPMENKAURE | 10-1 | 12-1 | 73.7 | 7% | 22% | ·-1% |
| 13 | ETEXAS HOLIDAY | 4.0-1 | 6.8-1 | 73.0 | 7% | 20% | ▼-31% |
| 8 | SEGYPTIAN CANDY | 20-1 | 34-1 | 73.1 | 7% | 20% | ▲+8% |
| 3 | PMUSTANG LADY | 20-1 | 41-1 | 70.8 | 6% | 19% | ▲+7% |
| 5 | CPGOT GONE | 30-1 | 48-1 | 68.9 | 6% | 19% | ▲+11% |
| 16 | SQUEEN MERCEDES | 12-1 | 18-1 | 72.9 | 6% | 18% | ·-1% |
| 2 | EAUSTIN HIGH | 6.0-1 | 8.3-1 | 65.3 | 5% | 15% | ▼-21% |
| 7 | PFASHION AFFIRMED | 30-1 | 60-1 | 69.3 | 5% | 14% | ▲+6% |
| 11 | SHONOR AZTECA | 12-1 | 26-1 | 69.1 | 4% | 13% | ▼-6% |
| 14 | EBINDI | 20-1 | 36-1 | 64.1 | 4% | 11% | ·-1% |
| 1 | PSUSSUDIO | 30-1 | 53-1 | 63.0 | 3% | 11% | ·+2% |
| 10 | EKITTENS STORMY GAL | 15-1 | 31-1 | 63.7 | 3% | 10% | ▼-6% |
Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. See How to Use for the math.
Ask Claude Opus
Questions about the model's predictions for Race 10 · Wed, Apr 29 · Churchill Downs. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.
Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.
Limited to 30 questions per day per visitor. Answers are model-generated and may be incorrect — not betting advice.