Wed, Apr 29
Race 9
IMphyMthnL200k
Post: 4:56 · 1.50m · Dirt · $200K purse · 9 runners
New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.Pace shape
9 runnersHot pace
6 early types pressing for the lead — expect a fast pace, favors closers (P/S).
Projected speed
- #5 INTERCEPTOR (EP, QSP 7)
- #4 DIGITAL OPS (E, QSP 7)
- #8 WYNSTOCK (EP, QSP 6)
- #7 JOHNY'S RENDEZVOUS (EP, QSP 5)
- #6 MAKES SENSE (EP, QSP 4)
- #9 STOWAWAY (EP, QSP 0)
Trifecta shape
Wide openLottery shape — low hit rates, larger payouts when they cash. Entertainment-only; the model is not confident in any structure.
1×3×3 key (top pick) on posts 1, 2, 5, 4
The model's most-likely-to-cash structure (informational — not a bet recommendation).
Cost
$6.00
6 combos
Hit prob
3.1%
simulated
Typical payout if hit
$46.08
mean $52.70
Expected ROI
-72.8%
net $-4.37
- · Most-likely-to-cash structure: 1×3×3 key (top pick) on posts [1, 2, 5, 4] — hits 3.1% of simulated runs
- · At $6 stake, a typical cash pays ≈ $46 (mean $53; trifecta payoffs are heavy-tailed). Estimated from the public pool, validated against archive payoffs.
- · Wide-open shape — anyone could hit; longshots have room.
A Top picks
1
B Contenders
2, 5, 4
C Value-edge longshots
9, 6
Other ticket structures (5)
| Ticket | Cost | Hit prob | Typical payout | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-horse box | $6.00 | 3.2% | $36.80 | -79% |
| A key, B in 2nd, A+B+C in 3rd | $12.00 | 5.4% | $46.08 | -65% |
| 1×4×4 key (top pick) | $12.00 | 5.7% | $36.15 | -76% |
| 2×4×4 part wheel | $12.00 | 5.7% | $36.80 | -78% |
| 1×5×5 key (top pick) | $20.00 | 8.8% | $46.08 | -69% |
Hit prob is the model's per-race PL distribution. "Typical payout" is the median cash, weighted by the public pool's odds (not the model's own picks) and calibrated to actual historical trifecta payoffs — so it reflects what the tote really pays, not the model's disagreement. Walk-forward backtests show pari-mutuel takeout (~16-26%) is too steep to consistently clear at this data scale — these are tipsheet outputs, not bet recommendations.
Field
↳ Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).
| PP | Horse | ML | Pred Close | Pred Fig | Win | ITM% ↓ | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | APNO BIEN NI MAL | 3.0-1 | 3.2-1 | 95.2 | 18% | 49% | ▼-15% |
| 2 | BPPARCHMENT PARTY | 2.0-1 | 2.0-1 | 96.5 | 15% | 44% | ▼-41% |
| 5 | BEPINTERCEPTOR | 6.0-1 | 7.3-1 | 90.8 | 12% | 36% | ·-0% |
| 4 | BEDIGITAL OPS | 8.0-1 | 7.8-1 | 90.5 | 11% | 34% | ▲+6% |
| 8 | EPWYNSTOCK | 4.5-1 | 4.8-1 | 88.6 | 11% | 33% | ▼-13% |
| 9 | CEPSTOWAWAY | 12-1 | 16-1 | 90.5 | 10% | 31% | ▲+12% |
| 3 | PTIMEOUT | 12-1 | 16-1 | 87.6 | 8% | 26% | ▲+7% |
| 6 | CEPMAKES SENSE | 15-1 | 18-1 | 86.0 | 8% | 25% | ▲+9% |
| 7 | EPJOHNY'S RENDEZVOUS | 20-1 | 31-1 | 85.9 | 6% | 21% | ▲+9% |
Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. See How to Use for the math.
Ask Claude Opus
Questions about the model's predictions for Race 9 · Wed, Apr 29 · Churchill Downs. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.
Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.
Limited to 30 questions per day per visitor. Answers are model-generated and may be incorrect — not betting advice.