John-Z's Overlay · Trifecta ATM
← Churchill Downs R10

PP 4

OAK ALLEY

F '22 · KITTEN'S JOY × VAMO A GALUPIAR

Trainer: MOGER ED JR · Jockey: PAULY SUMMER

Today's prediction

77.0

Speed fig

26.1%

In-the-money

Last 10 races

Why this prediction?

Base prediction: 76.4 fig points

Pushing prediction up

  • BRIS Prime Power +1.89
  • Max Speed Fig Career +0.34
  • Today Track Code +0.29
  • Class Par Trend +0.22
  • Mean Pace 4f Last 5 +0.21

Pushing prediction down

  • Today Field Size -0.74
  • Speed Fig On Todays Surface Mean -0.61
  • Mean Speed Fig Last 3 -0.59
  • Trouble Adjusted Speed Fig Last 5 -0.37
  • Field Size Change From Last -0.35

Past performances

Date Track Dist Sfx Fin Beat Fig Class Comment
2026-03-21 TP 1m Dirt 5 6.5 77 88 Vie 2w;led;ins trio1/4
2026-03-06 TP 1.06m Dirt 4 18.0 66 88 Chased ins-2p;vied shw
2026-01-17 TP 1m Dirt 4 4.3 77 80 Stalk ins;chs 2p;nobid
2025-12-20 TP 6f Dirt 7 5.8 74 81 Bump start;3p;no bid
2025-11-21 CD 7f Dirt 3 5.8 80 83 Bmpd/crowdd btw st;ins
2025-10-24 KEE 1.06m Turf 12 41.3 38 86 2wd btwn; done early
2025-09-23 IND 1.04m Dirt 5 2.0 74 80 5p;rally5/16;imp1/16
2025-07-14 ELP 1m Turf 1 0.1 80 76 Bmpd;long drv;prevail
2025-05-25 CD 1.06m Turf 6 3.0 77 81 Brush brk;bid4w;flatnd
2025-04-17 KEE 1.06m Turf 3 3.5 77 82 3-4w;7p1/4;ran on