John-Z's Overlay · Trifecta ATM
← Churchill Downs R10

PP 8

EGYPTIAN CANDY

M '21 · TWIRLING CANDY × LILY OF THE NILE

Trainer: LEITCH DANIEL · Jockey: SAEZ GABRIEL

Today's prediction

73.1

Speed fig

19.7%

In-the-money

Last 10 races

Why this prediction?

Base prediction: 76.4 fig points

Pushing prediction up

  • Speed Fig On Todays Surface Mean +0.50
  • Mean Pace 2f Last 5 +0.32
  • Mean Pace 4f Last 5 +0.32
  • Mean Class Par Last 5 +0.31
  • BRIS Turf Pedigree +0.22

Pushing prediction down

  • BRIS Prime Power -2.11
  • Today Field Size -0.63
  • Mean Speed Fig Last 3 -0.50
  • Today Post Position -0.31
  • Trouble Adjusted Speed Fig Last 5 -0.26

Past performances

Date Track Dist Sfx Fin Beat Fig Class Comment
2026-03-21 TP 1m Dirt 8 8.5 74 88 Step slw;6-4p1st;5p2nd
2026-01-02 TP 1m Dirt 9 11.0 67 91 Step slow st;bmp early
2025-04-18 KEE 1.06m Turf 11 12.0 70 87 Bmp st;svd grnd;no bid
2025-03-22 TP 1m Dirt 7 9.5 73 86 No speed wide str run
2025-01-23 TP 1m Dirt 6 3.8 79 83 Closed gap to improve
2024-11-22 CD 1.13m Turf 10 15.0 66 87 Inside; done early
2024-10-26 KEE 1.19m Turf 5 5.5 77 87 Ins;5p upr;lacked kick
2024-09-14 BAQ 1.38m Turf 10 5.8 84 88 Tracked ins; no impact
2024-08-24 ELP 1m Turf 3 0.5 83 89 2w;6p1/8;rally;mss plc
2024-01-05 TP 1m Dirt 6 7.0 68 84 Circled field no gain