John-Z's Overlay · Trifecta ATM
← Churchill Downs R10

PP 16

QUEEN MERCEDES

F '22 · MIDSHIPMAN × MADRES WAR

Trainer: BUSH GEORGE S · Jockey: LEBRON VICTOR

Today's prediction

72.9

Speed fig

18.2%

In-the-money

Last 4 races

Why this prediction?

Base prediction: 76.4 fig points

Pushing prediction up

  • Speed Fig Consistency +0.52
  • Today Track Code +0.36
  • Mean Pace 2f Last 5 +0.35
  • Mean Pace 4f Last 5 +0.34
  • Max Speed Fig Career +0.31

Pushing prediction down

  • BRIS Prime Power -1.45
  • Mean Class Par Last 5 -0.89
  • Speed Fig On Todays Surface Mean -0.73
  • Trouble Adjusted Speed Fig Last 5 -0.68
  • Today Field Size -0.59

Past performances

Date Track Dist Sfx Fin Beat Fig Class Comment
2026-03-19 TP 1m Dirt 3 7.0 73 78 Ins;7p3/16;ran on
2026-02-25 TP 6.5f Dirt 1 0.8 81 77 3-4p;rally;up in time
2025-08-02 BTP 6f Dirt 5 10.3 48 74 Bump start;rail; lane
2025-07-05 IND 6f Dirt 6 17.8 50 76 Well back;no bid