Derby 2026
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PP 13

TEXAS HOLIDAY

F '22 · IMPROBABLE × DEAR ELAINE

Trainer: SHARP JOE · Jockey: PRAT FLAVIEN

Today's prediction

78.5

Speed fig

27.5%

In-the-money

Last 10 races

Why this prediction?

Base prediction: 83.2 fig points

Pushing prediction up

  • Max Speed Fig Career +0.52
  • Class Par Trend +0.14
  • Speed Fig Trend +0.11
  • Mean Pace 2f Last 5 +0.11
  • BRIS Mud Pedigree +0.11

Pushing prediction down

  • BRIS Prime Power -3.47
  • Speed Fig On Todays Surface Mean -0.71
  • Days Since Last Race -0.37
  • Speed Fig Consistency -0.34
  • Mean Class Par Last 5 -0.33

Past performances

Date Track Dist Sfx Fin Beat Fig Class Comment
2026-04-08 KEE 1.06m Turf 7 16.5 73 86 Tough ld;2w;5p1/4;fade
2025-10-16 WO 7.5f Turf 7 6.0 74 78 Loose lead;folded16th
2025-10-05 WO 1.06m Turf 5 4.3 81 87 Set pace;wilted 16th
2025-09-14 WO 1.06m Turf 9 9.0 75 87 Pace inside;gave way
2025-08-02 WO 1m Turf 2 1.0 84 87 Pace; clear; no match
2025-07-12 WO 1.06m Turf 1 8.8 86 74 Dominant on lead
2025-05-18 WO 6f Dirt 6 11.5 62 80 Back away around turn
2025-03-23 GP 1.06m Turf 7 7.5 75 80 Chase;2p;faded
2025-02-05 GP 1m Turf 2 1.8 73 82 Rail; pace; held 2nd
2025-01-08 GP 1.06m Turf 3 1.0 75 Pulling 2wd; led turn