Derby 2026
← Race

PP 3

MUSTANG LADY

M '20 · TONALIST × HUNDRED YEAR STORM

Trainer: SWEEZEY J KENT · Jockey: SHEEHY DANNY

Today's prediction

72.1

Speed fig

16.2%

In-the-money

Last 10 races

Why this prediction?

Base prediction: 83.2 fig points

Pushing prediction up

  • BRIS Mud Pedigree +0.25
  • Mean Speed Fig Last 3 +0.18
  • Prior Starts At Churchill +0.16
  • Speed Fig At Similar Distance Mean +0.15
  • Mean Pace 2f Last 5 +0.12

Pushing prediction down

  • BRIS Prime Power -9.24
  • Mean Class Par Last 5 -0.99
  • Max Speed Fig Career -0.67
  • Days Since Last Race -0.35
  • Mean Speed Fig Last 5 -0.32

Past performances

Date Track Dist Sfx Fin Beat Fig Class Comment
2026-04-09 KEE 7f Dirt 3 5.3 72 78 4-5p;6p1/4;willingly
2026-02-20 TP 6.5f Dirt 3 7.8 69 79 Brsh;4-5p;outkckd;stay
2026-02-05 TP 1m Dirt 3 2.0 78 78 Inside to 1/4; kept on
2026-01-15 TP 1.06m Dirt 4 5.5 74 78 Ins;3-4p2nd;dueld show
2025-10-30 CD 1.06m Dirt 4 1.3 71 80 Ins;btw;ran on 5p1/16
2025-09-26 CD 1.06m Dirt 3 2.0 75 76 Brshd;2wbtw;4p1/4;even
2025-09-12 CD 1m Dirt 4 6.8 75 80 Tracked 4-3w;gave way
2025-08-16 ELP 1m Turf 4 4.0 74 76 Ins;3-4p2nd;mildly
2025-07-03 ELP 1m Turf 2 0.3 73 77 3w;6p1/8;bid;led;naild
2025-04-11 KEE 6.5f Dirt 4 8.0 69 77 Step slow st;ins;bled