John-Z's Overlay · Trifecta ATM
← Churchill Downs R10

PP 12

HEART SPIN

M '20 · HARD SPUN × FRIVOLITY

Trainer: NAVARRETE ANNA · Jockey: MORALES EDGAR

Today's prediction

77.6

Speed fig

25.9%

In-the-money

Last 10 races

Why this prediction?

Base prediction: 76.4 fig points

Pushing prediction up

  • Speed Fig On Todays Surface Mean +1.01
  • Trouble Adjusted Speed Fig Last 5 +0.54
  • Mean Speed Fig Last 3 +0.42
  • Mean Pace 2f Last 5 +0.27
  • Mean Speed Fig Last 5 +0.26

Pushing prediction down

  • Today Field Size -0.63
  • Field Size Change From Last -0.40
  • Today Post Position -0.38
  • Last Finish Pos -0.15
  • Weight Change From Last -0.14

Past performances

Date Track Dist Sfx Fin Beat Fig Class Comment
2026-04-12 KEE 1.13m Turf 8 10.0 76 86 Trailed 2p; no factor
2025-11-23 CD 1m Turf 4 3.0 83 86 Ins;6p1/4;rallied
2025-10-10 KEE 1.19m Turf 4 3.0 81 86 4-2p;7p upr;belatedly
2025-09-04 KD 1.31m Turf 6 4.5 87 86 Inside run;needed more
2025-07-21 ELP 1.13m Dirt 4 9.3 75 88 Ins;3p2nd;no menace
2025-06-12 CD 1.38m Turf 3 8.0 88 88 Svd grnd;4p1/4;one pcd
2025-05-11 CD 1.13m Dirt 6 21.0 67 91 Inside; outrun
2025-04-06 KEE 1m Dirt 2 11.8 73 87 2w-ins;rallied 3-4w1/4
2025-03-06 TP 1.06m Dirt 7 11.0 75 86 No speed/no factor
2025-01-23 TP 1m Dirt 4 2.0 81 83 Savd ground closed gap