Fri, May 29
Race 9
Md 50000
Post: 4:55 · 1m · Turf · $67K purse · 11 runners
New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.Pace shape
11 runnersContested pace
3 early types — pace should be honest but not crazy. No strong style bias.
Projected speed
- #7 DEBBY'S GAL (P, QSP 8)
- #8 RACONTEUSE (EP, QSP 6)
- #9 SUDDEN SQUALL (EP, QSP 6)
- #5 RIBADEO (EP, QSP 3)
2 of 11 runners have no BRIS run-style code (often first-time starters); narrative may understate the true pace.
Trifecta shape
Wide openLottery shape — low hit rates, larger payouts when they cash. Entertainment-only; the model is not confident in any structure.
1×3×3 key (top pick) on posts 1, 8, 7, 13
The model's most-likely-to-cash structure (informational — not a bet recommendation).
Cost
$6.00
6 combos
Hit prob
2.4%
simulated
Typical payout if hit
$42.20
mean $73.18
Expected ROI
-71.0%
net $-4.26
- · Most-likely-to-cash structure: 1×3×3 key (top pick) on posts [1, 8, 7, 13] — hits 2.4% of simulated runs
- · At $6 stake, a typical cash pays ≈ $42 (mean $73; trifecta payoffs are heavy-tailed). Estimated from the public pool, validated against archive payoffs.
- · Wide-open shape — anyone could hit; longshots have room.
A Top picks
1, 8
B Contenders
7, 13, 9
C Value-edge longshots
12, 14
Other ticket structures (5)
| Ticket | Cost | Hit prob | Typical payout | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-horse box | $6.00 | 2.6% | $38.63 | -83% |
| 2×4×4 part wheel | $12.00 | 4.7% | $38.63 | -72% |
| 1×4×4 key (top pick) | $12.00 | 4.3% | $41.79 | -74% |
| 1×5×5 key (top pick) | $20.00 | 6.0% | $42.20 | -76% |
| 4-horse box | $24.00 | 7.9% | $45.55 | -69% |
Hit prob is the model's per-race PL distribution. "Typical payout" is the median cash, weighted by the public pool's odds (not the model's own picks) and calibrated to actual historical trifecta payoffs — so it reflects what the tote really pays, not the model's disagreement. Walk-forward backtests show pari-mutuel takeout (~16-26%) is too steep to consistently clear at this data scale — these are tipsheet outputs, not bet recommendations.
Field
↳ Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).
| PP | Horse | ML | Pred Close | Pred Fig | Win | ITM% ↓ | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | APDARING MADISON | 4.0-1 | 3.9-1 | 76.3 | 17% | 48% | ·-3% |
| 8 | AEPRACONTEUSE | 3.0-1 | 3.3-1 | 78.0 | 17% | 47% | ▼-17% |
| 7 | BPDEBBY'S GAL | 6.0-1 | 8.4-1 | 70.0 | 9% | 28% | ▼-8% |
| 13 | BPLADY FAYE | 15-1 | 23-1 | 71.1 | 9% | 28% | ▲+12% |
| 9 | BEPSUDDEN SQUALL | 8.0-1 | 8.3-1 | 69.0 | 9% | 27% | ·-1% |
| 11 | SHAYWINII | 8.0-1 | 11-1 | 67.5 | 7% | 22% | ▼-6% |
| 5 | EPRIBADEO | 8.0-1 | 13-1 | 67.3 | 7% | 21% | ▼-7% |
| 14 | CMOTHER LODE | 20-1 | 48-1 | 66.7 | 6% | 20% | ▲+8% |
| 10 | SMARKET STRATEGY | 20-1 | 30-1 | 62.8 | 6% | 20% | ▲+8% |
| 12 | CPROTISSERIE | 30-1 | 50-1 | 64.1 | 6% | 20% | ▲+11% |
| 6 | LUCKY TO DANCE | 20-1 | 39-1 | 67.5 | 6% | 18% | ▲+6% |
| 2 | SCRTRAMUNTANA | 8.0-1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 3 | SCRSPEIGHTSY RIVAL | 20-1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 4 | SCREHOWYOUDOSOMETHING | 12-1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 15 | SCRENGLISH HARBOUR | 10-1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 16 | SCREPMODERN ESCAPE | 12-1 | — | — | — | — | — |
Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. See How to Use for the math.
Ask Claude Opus
Questions about the model's predictions for Race 9 · Fri, May 29 · Churchill Downs. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.
Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.
Limited to 30 questions per day per visitor. Answers are model-generated and may be incorrect — not betting advice.