John-Z's Overlay · Trifecta ATM
← Churchill Downs R9

PP 12

ROTISSERIE

F '23 · FLAMEAWAY × THREE BIRDS

Trainer: LAUER MICHAEL · Jockey: GRAHAM J

Today's prediction

64.1

Speed fig

19.7%

In-the-money

Last 8 races

Why this prediction?

Base prediction: 76.4 fig points

Pushing prediction up

  • Field Avg Quirin +0.27
  • Class Par Trend +0.23
  • Num Career Starts +0.17
  • Tj Combo Win Rate 365d +0.14
  • Mean Speed Fig Career +0.11

Pushing prediction down

  • BRIS Prime Power -5.86
  • Distance Change From Last -0.95
  • Speed Fig On Todays Surface Mean -0.89
  • Trouble Adjusted Speed Fig Last 5 -0.87
  • Mean Speed Fig Last 3 -0.77

Past performances

Date Track Dist Sfx Fin Beat Fig Class Comment
2026-05-07 CD 6f Dirt 2 6.8 70 79 Chsd 3-5p;edg plc late
2026-04-09 KEE 7f Dirt 2 6.8 72 80 2-3p;6p1/4;led;outkckd
2026-03-12 CNL 7f Dirt 6 12.0 55 78 Rail; gave way;
2026-02-11 TP 6f Dirt 5 6.5 60 72 2-3p;4p3/16;no bid
2026-01-03 TP 6.5f Dirt 5 5.8 59 69 Bump early;2p;5p3/16
2025-11-28 CD 6f Dirt 7 9.3 53 72 Ins;ins pair 5/16;wknd
2025-11-01 CD 6f Dirt 12 21.5 41 76 Ins;wknd;showed little
2025-10-05 KEE 6.5f Dirt 10 19.8 43 78 Bumped/steady 5/8;lag