Fri, May 29
Race 8
OClm 125000n1x
Post: 4:22 · 6f · Dirt · $127K purse · 6 runners · LIVE Trifecta math uses live odds for 6 of 6 runners
New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.Pace shape
6 runnersContested pace
4 early types — pace should be honest but not crazy. No strong style bias.
Projected speed
- #2 MUNNINGS CHALLENGE (EP, QSP 6)
- #8 DOUBLECENTS (E, QSP 4)
- #9 AMERICAN MAN (EP, QSP 4)
- #3 ROCKIES BALBOA (E, QSP 3)
Trifecta shape
CompetitiveModel has no clear edge — every ticket structure is steeply negative-EV. Skip, or treat as an entertainment bet and size accordingly.
1×3×3 key (top pick) on posts 2, 8, 9, 5
The model's most-likely-to-cash structure (informational — not a bet recommendation).
Cost
$6.00
6 combos
Hit prob
11.5%
simulated
Typical payout if hit
$8.29
mean $12.20
Expected ROI
-76.7%
net $-4.60
- · Most-likely-to-cash structure: 1×3×3 key (top pick) on posts [2, 8, 9, 5] — hits 11.5% of simulated runs
- · At $6 stake, a typical cash pays ≈ $8 (mean $12; trifecta payoffs are heavy-tailed). Estimated from the public pool, validated against archive payoffs.
- · Multiple legitimate contenders — model is less concentrated.
A Top picks
2
B Contenders
8, 9, 5
C Value-edge longshots
3, 7
Other ticket structures (5)
| Ticket | Cost | Hit prob | Typical payout | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-horse box | $6.00 | 12.4% | $9.39 | -80% |
| 1×4×4 key (top pick) | $12.00 | 20.7% | $16.59 | -70% |
| A key, B in 2nd, A+B+C in 3rd | $12.00 | 18.5% | $13.58 | -71% |
| 2×4×4 part wheel | $12.00 | 20.8% | $13.09 | -75% |
| 1×5×5 key (top pick) | $20.00 | 25.6% | $16.59 | -66% |
Hit prob is the model's per-race PL distribution. "Typical payout" is the median cash, weighted by the public pool's odds (not the model's own picks) and calibrated to actual historical trifecta payoffs — so it reflects what the tote really pays, not the model's disagreement. Walk-forward backtests show pari-mutuel takeout (~16-26%) is too steep to consistently clear at this data scale — these are tipsheet outputs, not bet recommendations.
Field
↳ Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).
| PP | Horse | ML | Pred Close | Live | Pred Fig | Win | ITM% ↓ | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | AEPMUNNINGS CHALLENGE | 2.0-1 | 1.3-1 | ↓1.2-1 | 88.7 | 26% | 68% | ▼-32% |
| 8 | BEDOUBLECENTS | 4.5-1 | 4.3-1 | ↓2.5-1 | 87.8 | 20% | 58% | ▼-15% |
| 9 | BEPAMERICAN MAN | 6.0-1 | 4.7-1 | ↓3.0-1 | 85.4 | 18% | 55% | ▼-8% |
| 5 | BPHAMMOND | 12-1 | 10.0-1 | ↓6.0-1 | 85.4 | 15% | 48% | ▲+12% |
| 3 | CEROCKIES BALBOA | 10-1 | 11-1 | ·9.0-1 | 84.5 | 14% | 46% | ▲+21% |
| 7 | CPVAPORIZER | 30-1 | 33-1 | ·37-1 | 74.2 | 7% | 24% | ▲+17% |
| 1 | SCRPSMALL TOWN | 3.5-1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 4 | SCRPGUN RANGE | 5.0-1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 6 | SCRSSAV'N MONEY | 30-1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. Live column: ↓ green = ≥25% shorter than ML (money horse); ↑ red = ≥25% longer (drifting). See How to Use for the math.
Ask Claude Opus
Questions about the model's predictions for Race 8 · Fri, May 29 · Churchill Downs. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.
Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.
Limited to 30 questions per day per visitor. Answers are model-generated and may be incorrect — not betting advice.