Fri, May 29
Race 7
OClm 80000n2x
Post: 3:50 · 5.5f · Turf · $134K purse · 9 runners
New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.Pace shape
9 runnersHot pace
6 early types pressing for the lead — expect a fast pace, favors closers (P/S).
Projected speed
- #7 ITZEL (E, QSP 8)
- #1 FANCY CABER NEIGH (EP, QSP 6)
- #10 TEMPTING EVE (EP, QSP 6)
- #4 CLOE (E, QSP 5)
- #3 STORMY PARADISE (EP, QSP 5)
- #2 HIGH FASHION KATE (EP, QSP 4)
Trifecta shape
Wide openLottery shape — low hit rates, larger payouts when they cash. Entertainment-only; the model is not confident in any structure.
1×3×3 key (top pick) on posts 4, 8, 7, 5
The model's most-likely-to-cash structure (informational — not a bet recommendation).
Cost
$6.00
6 combos
Hit prob
4.8%
simulated
Typical payout if hit
$27.91
mean $30.64
Expected ROI
-75.5%
net $-4.53
- · Most-likely-to-cash structure: 1×3×3 key (top pick) on posts [4, 8, 7, 5] — hits 4.8% of simulated runs
- · At $6 stake, a typical cash pays ≈ $28 (mean $31; trifecta payoffs are heavy-tailed). Estimated from the public pool, validated against archive payoffs.
- · Wide-open shape — anyone could hit; longshots have room.
A Top picks
4, 8
B Contenders
7, 5, 1
C Value-edge longshots
10, 3
Other ticket structures (5)
| Ticket | Cost | Hit prob | Typical payout | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-horse box | $6.00 | 4.7% | $29.53 | -76% |
| 2×4×4 part wheel | $12.00 | 9.0% | $33.92 | -72% |
| 1×4×4 key (top pick) | $12.00 | 8.2% | $27.91 | -79% |
| 1×5×5 key (top pick) | $20.00 | 11.1% | $29.53 | -74% |
| 4-horse box | $24.00 | 17.2% | $33.51 | -72% |
Hit prob is the model's per-race PL distribution. "Typical payout" is the median cash, weighted by the public pool's odds (not the model's own picks) and calibrated to actual historical trifecta payoffs — so it reflects what the tote really pays, not the model's disagreement. Walk-forward backtests show pari-mutuel takeout (~16-26%) is too steep to consistently clear at this data scale — these are tipsheet outputs, not bet recommendations.
Field
↳ Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).
| PP | Horse | ML | Pred Close | Pred Fig | Win | ITM% ↓ | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | AECLOE | 3.5-1 | 2.5-1 | 88.3 | 18% | 51% | ▼-5% |
| 8 | APJUSTINQUESO | 6.0-1 | 5.3-1 | 87.0 | 16% | 46% | ▲+10% |
| 7 | BEITZEL | 3.0-1 | 3.3-1 | 86.6 | 15% | 43% | ▼-20% |
| 5 | BSSATIN BLUE | 5.0-1 | 5.0-1 | 85.6 | 15% | 43% | ·+1% |
| 1 | BEPFANCY CABER NEIGH | 4.0-1 | 4.5-1 | 83.9 | 11% | 34% | ▼-17% |
| 10 | CEPTEMPTING EVE | 20-1 | 36-1 | 78.9 | 8% | 26% | ▲+14% |
| 2 | EPHIGH FASHION KATE | 15-1 | 25-1 | 79.5 | 7% | 23% | ▲+7% |
| 6 | PJUNTA | 20-1 | 50-1 | 74.5 | 5% | 17% | ·+5% |
| 3 | CEPSTORMY PARADISE | 30-1 | 56-1 | 72.9 | 5% | 16% | ▲+8% |
| 9 | SCREPSHE'Z THE LAW | 10-1 | — | — | — | — | — |
Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. See How to Use for the math.
Ask Claude Opus
Questions about the model's predictions for Race 7 · Fri, May 29 · Churchill Downs. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.
Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.
Limited to 30 questions per day per visitor. Answers are model-generated and may be incorrect — not betting advice.