John-Z's Overlay · Trifecta ATM
← Churchill Downs R6

PP 6

PETOSKEY STONES

C '23 · AUTHENTIC × MEZINKA

Trainer: COX BRAD H · Jockey: ORTIZ IRAD JR

Today's prediction

74.3

Speed fig

32.5%

In-the-money

Last 4 races

Why this prediction?

Base prediction: 76.4 fig points

Pushing prediction up

  • Today Track Code +0.43
  • Field Avg Quirin +0.27
  • Max Speed Fig Career +0.22
  • Mean Pace 2f Last 5 +0.20
  • Weight Change From Last +0.17

Pushing prediction down

  • Speed Fig On Todays Surface Mean -0.58
  • Trouble Adjusted Speed Fig Last 5 -0.58
  • Mean Speed Fig Last 3 -0.51
  • Field Size Change From Last -0.51
  • Mean Class Par Last 5 -0.37

Past performances

Date Track Dist Sfx Fin Beat Fig Class Comment
2026-03-27 TP 1m Dirt 6 12.0 67 86 Brushed start; 4-3p
2026-02-27 TP 1m Dirt 1 0.3 82 78 Brk out 3w;led1/4;game
2025-10-25 KEE 1.13m Turf 9 13.5 62 81 Pinched st;ins;3-5p2nd
2025-08-11 ELP 7f Dirt 9 12.5 58 81 Off slow;2p;no impact