John-Z's Overlay · Trifecta ATM
← Churchill Downs R4

PP 2

MAXIMUM PROMISE

C '22 · MAXIMUM SECURITY × PAIXAO

Trainer: MCPEEK KENNETH G · Jockey: ORTIZ JOSE L

Today's prediction

83.2

Speed fig

53.7%

In-the-money

Last 10 races

Why this prediction?

Base prediction: 76.4 fig points

Pushing prediction up

  • BRIS Prime Power +2.94
  • Mean Class Par Last 5 +1.28
  • Speed Fig On Todays Surface Mean +1.14
  • Trouble Adjusted Speed Fig Last 5 +0.71
  • Today Track Code +0.31

Pushing prediction down

  • Num Career Starts -0.17
  • Speed Fig Consistency -0.16
  • Class Par Trend -0.12
  • Trainer Meet Win Rate -0.11
  • Mean Speed Fig Career -0.10

Past performances

Date Track Dist Sfx Fin Beat Fig Class Comment
2026-05-01 OP 1.06m Dirt 4 8.5 78 92 Inside; evenly stretch
2026-03-19 FG 1.06m Dirt 5 12.8 78 91 Pinch st; trailed most
2025-12-04 TP 1.25m Dirt 5 3.5 86 93 Ins run; stayed game
2025-11-02 CD 1.13m Turf 2 2.0 84 90 Bmpd btw;7p upr;up plc
2025-09-25 CD 1.06m Dirt 6 3.5 86 95 2-3w;bid;chsd;yld btw
2025-08-30 KD 1.31m Turf 8 10.5 86 91 3-4w far trn;no rally
2025-05-03 CD 1.06m Turf 10 8.5 84 97 3w1st;7p upr;no threat
2025-03-22 TP 1.13m Dirt 3 4.0 96 97 5p upr;rally;bid;hung
2025-02-22 TP 1.06m Dirt 3 6.0 85 93 Jammed up st; rallied
2025-01-18 FG 1.06m Dirt 5 2.5 85 97 Ins;ran on;missed 4th