Fri, May 22
Race 7
Md Sp Wt
Post: 3:50 · 1m · Dirt · $120K purse · 11 runners
New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.Pace shape
11 runnersContested pace
4 early types — pace should be honest but not crazy. No strong style bias.
Projected speed
- #2 MISS COMPLICATED (EP, QSP 8)
- #9 AEGIS (EP, QSP 6)
- #3 FLASH OF FREEDOM (EP, QSP 5)
- #6 BABYSITTER (E, QSP 3)
3 of 11 runners have no BRIS run-style code (often first-time starters); narrative may understate the true pace.
Trifecta shape
Wide openLottery shape — low hit rates, larger payouts when they cash. Entertainment-only; the model is not confident in any structure.
1×3×3 key (top pick) on posts 10, 5, 7, 9
The model's most-likely-to-cash structure (informational — not a bet recommendation).
Cost
$6.00
6 combos
Hit prob
1.2%
simulated
Typical payout if hit
$123.49
mean $137.62
Expected ROI
-72.1%
net $-4.32
- · Most-likely-to-cash structure: 1×3×3 key (top pick) on posts [10, 5, 7, 9] — hits 1.2% of simulated runs
- · At $6 stake, a typical cash pays ≈ $123 (mean $138; trifecta payoffs are heavy-tailed). Estimated from the public pool, validated against archive payoffs.
- · Wide-open shape — anyone could hit; longshots have room.
A Top picks
10
B Contenders
5, 7, 9
C Value-edge longshots
4
Other ticket structures (5)
| Ticket | Cost | Hit prob | Typical payout | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-horse box | $6.00 | 1.2% | $131.64 | -73% |
| A key, B in 2nd, A+B+C in 3rd | $9.00 | 1.8% | $131.64 | -67% |
| 1×4×4 key (top pick) | $12.00 | 2.4% | $131.64 | -63% |
| 2×4×4 part wheel | $12.00 | 2.3% | $130.44 | -72% |
| 1×5×5 key (top pick) | $20.00 | 3.8% | $161.66 | -67% |
Hit prob is the model's per-race PL distribution. "Typical payout" is the median cash, weighted by the public pool's odds (not the model's own picks) and calibrated to actual historical trifecta payoffs — so it reflects what the tote really pays, not the model's disagreement. Walk-forward backtests show pari-mutuel takeout (~16-26%) is too steep to consistently clear at this data scale — these are tipsheet outputs, not bet recommendations.
Field
↳ Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).
| PP | Horse | ML | Pred Close | Pred Fig | Win | ITM% ↓ | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | APIN SCOPE | 4.0-1 | 3.7-1 | 80.5 | 13% | 37% | ▼-14% |
| 5 | BPAL GHADEER | 5.0-1 | 5.3-1 | 81.2 | 11% | 31% | ▼-11% |
| 7 | BPFAST GUN | 8.0-1 | 8.4-1 | 78.1 | 10% | 31% | ·+2% |
| 9 | BEPAEGIS | 6.0-1 | 7.7-1 | 77.6 | 10% | 29% | ▼-7% |
| 4 | CSHE'S OUR GIRL | 15-1 | 15-1 | 78.2 | 9% | 28% | ▲+12% |
| 11 | PBODACIOUS BAY | 8.0-1 | 7.3-1 | 74.6 | 9% | 27% | ·-1% |
| 2 | EPMISS COMPLICATED | 12-1 | 15-1 | 80.9 | 9% | 27% | ▲+7% |
| 8 | ISLAND FLOWER | 12-1 | 12-1 | 76.9 | 8% | 25% | ▲+6% |
| 6 | EBABYSITTER | 15-1 | 22-1 | 75.5 | 8% | 24% | ▲+8% |
| 3 | EPFLASH OF FREEDOM | 10-1 | 13-1 | 76.4 | 8% | 23% | ·+0% |
| 1 | WEDELIA | 6.0-1 | 5.5-1 | 70.9 | 5% | 17% | ▼-20% |
| 12 | SCRSSONHADOR | 30-1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 13 | SCREMANCUSO | 15-1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 14 | SCRSWONZEE WEATHER | 20-1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 15 | SCRSCHARTED DESTINY | 12-1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 16 | SCRDARING MOVE | 20-1 | — | — | — | — | — |
Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. See How to Use for the math.
Ask Claude Opus
Questions about the model's predictions for Race 7 · Fri, May 22 · Churchill Downs. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.
Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.
Limited to 30 questions per day per visitor. Answers are model-generated and may be incorrect — not betting advice.