Fri, May 22
Race 6
Clm 75000
Post: 3:18 · 1m · Turf · $90K purse · 7 runners
New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.Pace shape
7 runnersHot pace
5 early types pressing for the lead — expect a fast pace, favors closers (P/S).
Projected speed
- #9 MORUNNING (E, QSP 8)
- #6 HIGGINS BOAT (EP, QSP 7)
- #5 EXACT ESTIMATE (EP, QSP 6)
- #3 IN A JAM (EP, QSP 6)
- #11 COCO COOL (EP, QSP 5)
Trifecta shape
CompetitiveModel has no clear edge — every ticket structure is steeply negative-EV. Skip, or treat as an entertainment bet and size accordingly.
1×3×3 key (top pick) on posts 6, 1, 5, 9
The model's most-likely-to-cash structure (informational — not a bet recommendation).
Cost
$6.00
6 combos
Hit prob
6.5%
simulated
Typical payout if hit
$11.71
mean $16.84
Expected ROI
-81.7%
net $-4.90
- · Most-likely-to-cash structure: 1×3×3 key (top pick) on posts [6, 1, 5, 9] — hits 6.5% of simulated runs
- · At $6 stake, a typical cash pays ≈ $12 (mean $17; trifecta payoffs are heavy-tailed). Estimated from the public pool, validated against archive payoffs.
- · Multiple legitimate contenders — model is less concentrated.
A Top picks
6, 1
B Contenders
5, 9, 3
C Value-edge longshots
7
Other ticket structures (5)
| Ticket | Cost | Hit prob | Typical payout | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-horse box | $6.00 | 7.9% | $11.71 | -84% |
| 1×4×4 key (top pick) | $12.00 | 11.2% | $16.80 | -75% |
| 2×4×4 part wheel | $12.00 | 13.1% | $14.53 | -78% |
| 1×5×5 key (top pick) | $20.00 | 16.1% | $22.74 | -71% |
| A key, B in 2nd, A+B+C in 3rd | $24.00 | 19.3% | $22.74 | -64% |
Hit prob is the model's per-race PL distribution. "Typical payout" is the median cash, weighted by the public pool's odds (not the model's own picks) and calibrated to actual historical trifecta payoffs — so it reflects what the tote really pays, not the model's disagreement. Walk-forward backtests show pari-mutuel takeout (~16-26%) is too steep to consistently clear at this data scale — these are tipsheet outputs, not bet recommendations.
Field
↳ Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).
| PP | Horse | ML | Pred Close | Pred Fig | Win | ITM% ↓ | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | AEPHIGGINS BOAT | 2.5-1 | 2.2-1 | 90.0 | 20% | 55% | ▼-18% |
| 1 | APHONKY TONK HIGHWAY | 5.0-1 | 4.2-1 | 87.2 | 19% | 54% | ▲+12% |
| 5 | BEPEXACT ESTIMATE | 3.0-1 | 2.7-1 | 86.3 | 18% | 51% | ▼-12% |
| 9 | BEMORUNNING | 10-1 | 7.8-1 | 82.4 | 14% | 42% | ▲+19% |
| 3 | BEPIN A JAM | 15-1 | 19-1 | 83.7 | 12% | 39% | ▲+23% |
| 7 | CPOTAGO | 15-1 | 17-1 | 82.7 | 11% | 34% | ▲+18% |
| 11 | EPCOCO COOL | 15-1 | 25-1 | 76.6 | 7% | 24% | ▲+8% |
| 2 | SCREPBEEF WINSLOW | 6.0-1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 4 | SCREPRIGEL | 15-1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 8 | SCREPSAINT IN THE CITY | 30-1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 10 | SCRPFROSTY INDULGENCE | 8.0-1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 12 | SCRPSKETCH | 8.0-1 | — | — | — | — | — |
Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. See How to Use for the math.
Ask Claude Opus
Questions about the model's predictions for Race 6 · Fri, May 22 · Churchill Downs. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.
Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.
Limited to 30 questions per day per visitor. Answers are model-generated and may be incorrect — not betting advice.