John-Z's Overlay · Trifecta ATM
← Churchill Downs R7

PP 9

AEGIS

F '23 · ESSENTIAL QUALITY × AMERICAN MODEL

Trainer: SHARP JOE · Jockey: HERNANDEZ B J JR

Today's prediction

77.6

Speed fig

29.3%

In-the-money

Last 5 races

Why this prediction?

Base prediction: 76.4 fig points

Pushing prediction up

  • BRIS Prime Power +3.88
  • Speed Fig On Todays Surface Mean +0.55
  • Trouble Adjusted Speed Fig Last 5 +0.40
  • Field Avg Quirin +0.33
  • BRIS Turf Pedigree +0.18

Pushing prediction down

  • Field Size Change From Last -1.37
  • Today Field Size -0.89
  • Mean Class Par Last 5 -0.63
  • Distance Change From Last -0.57
  • Today Post Position -0.39

Past performances

Date Track Dist Sfx Fin Beat Fig Class Comment
2026-04-23 KEE 6f Dirt 2 1.8 75 89 Bmp st;ins;rally 4p1/8
2026-03-13 FG 6f Dirt 2 0.1 86 87 Re-bid 3w;game;denied
2026-01-30 FG 6f Dirt 2 0.5 82 82 Pace; drifted; nailed
2025-12-27 FG 1.06m Dirt 3 7.8 77 79 Sharp; yielded 3/16
2025-11-20 FG 6f Dirt 3 7.3 77 82 Trail; split; rally 4w