Fri, May 22
Race 5
Alw 30000s
Post: 2:45 · 7f · Dirt · $62K purse · 7 runners
New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.Pace shape
7 runnersHot pace
6 early types pressing for the lead — expect a fast pace, favors closers (P/S).
Projected speed
- #2 BEAUTIFUL TWICE (E, QSP 6)
- #1 TAQDEER (E, QSP 5)
- #4 DANZIG'S DORA (E, QSP 4)
- #5 SPANKERBOOM (E, QSP 4)
- #7 RANDO (EP, QSP 2)
- #6 THATSALRIGHTMAMA (E, QSP 2)
Trifecta shape
CompetitiveModel has no clear edge — every ticket structure is steeply negative-EV. Skip, or treat as an entertainment bet and size accordingly.
3-horse box on posts 2, 4, 7
The model's most-likely-to-cash structure (informational — not a bet recommendation).
Cost
$6.00
6 combos
Hit prob
7.7%
simulated
Typical payout if hit
$18.66
mean $19.93
Expected ROI
-74.3%
net $-4.46
- · Most-likely-to-cash structure: 3-horse box on posts [2, 4, 7] — hits 7.7% of simulated runs
- · At $6 stake, a typical cash pays ≈ $19 (mean $20; trifecta payoffs are heavy-tailed). Estimated from the public pool, validated against archive payoffs.
- · Multiple legitimate contenders — model is less concentrated.
A Top picks
2, 4
B Contenders
7, 1, 6
C Value-edge longshots
5, 3
Other ticket structures (5)
| Ticket | Cost | Hit prob | Typical payout | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1×3×3 key (top pick) | $6.00 | 6.4% | $15.52 | -76% |
| 2×4×4 part wheel | $12.00 | 12.8% | $22.72 | -68% |
| 1×4×4 key (top pick) | $12.00 | 11.4% | $21.31 | -80% |
| 4-horse box | $24.00 | 23.3% | $29.51 | -63% |
| 1×5×5 key (top pick) | $20.00 | 16.1% | $21.37 | -77% |
Hit prob is the model's per-race PL distribution. "Typical payout" is the median cash, weighted by the public pool's odds (not the model's own picks) and calibrated to actual historical trifecta payoffs — so it reflects what the tote really pays, not the model's disagreement. Walk-forward backtests show pari-mutuel takeout (~16-26%) is too steep to consistently clear at this data scale — these are tipsheet outputs, not bet recommendations.
Field
↳ Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).
| PP | Horse | ML | Pred Close | Pred Fig | Win | ITM% ↓ | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | AEBEAUTIFUL TWICE | 1.6-1 | 1.1-1 | 83.4 | 20% | 55% | ▼-43% |
| 4 | AEDANZIG'S DORA | 5.0-1 | 5.1-1 | 81.2 | 19% | 54% | ▲+11% |
| 7 | BEPRANDO | 3.5-1 | 3.5-1 | 80.6 | 18% | 51% | ▼-5% |
| 1 | BETAQDEER | 6.0-1 | 8.9-1 | 80.4 | 14% | 42% | ▲+6% |
| 6 | BETHATSALRIGHTMAMA | 4.0-1 | 5.1-1 | 78.0 | 13% | 41% | ▼-10% |
| 3 | CSASHES AND DIAMONDS | 10-1 | 13-1 | 76.9 | 10% | 33% | ▲+10% |
| 5 | CESPANKERBOOM | 20-1 | 24-1 | 70.2 | 7% | 24% | ▲+12% |
Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. See How to Use for the math.
Ask Claude Opus
Questions about the model's predictions for Race 5 · Fri, May 22 · Churchill Downs. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.
Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.
Limited to 30 questions per day per visitor. Answers are model-generated and may be incorrect — not betting advice.