John-Z's Overlay · Trifecta ATM
← Churchill Downs R6

PP 5

EXACT ESTIMATE

H '19 · INTO MISCHIEF × MAGIC UNION

Trainer: COX BRAD H · Jockey: ORTIZ IRAD JR

Today's prediction

86.3

Speed fig

51.5%

In-the-money

Last 10 races

Why this prediction?

Base prediction: 76.4 fig points

Pushing prediction up

  • BRIS Prime Power +5.95
  • Speed Fig On Todays Surface Mean +1.29
  • Last Speed Fig +0.64
  • Trouble Adjusted Speed Fig Last 5 +0.61
  • Mean Class Par Last 5 +0.59

Pushing prediction down

  • Field Size Change From Last -0.30
  • Today Field Size -0.26
  • Class Par Trend -0.22
  • Num Career Starts -0.17
  • Mean Late Pace Last 5 -0.10

Past performances

Date Track Dist Sfx Fin Beat Fig Class Comment
2026-04-18 AQU 1m Turf 3 1.8 90 91 2-3w uppr; led; ran on
2026-01-11 AQU 1m Dirt 7 30.8 58 78 Chased 4-2w; faltered
2025-12-04 AQU 7f Dirt 2 1.8 86 95 Prompted 4-3w; ran on
2025-09-27 BAQ 1m Turf 10 6.0 84 91 Tkn up after brk;rank
2025-08-09 SAR 1m Turf 1 0.1 89 91 2-3p;4p1/4;bid;duel;up
2025-06-19 BAQ 1.06m Turf 2 1.0 87 90 3w 1st turn; ran on
2025-04-19 TAM 1m Turf 2 0.5 86 87 Ins;came2w;fought on
2025-01-25 GP 1.04m Dirt 9 6.5 88 93 2p-ins;lost ld1/4;fade
2024-12-28 GP 1.06m Dirt 7 4.5 89 93 Tracked 2p; gave way;
2024-03-02 GP 1.13m Dirt 1 0.3 92 93 Off slow; 4-3w; lasted