Sun, May 17
Race 9
Alw 127000n1x
Post: 4:55 · 5.5f · Turf · $127K purse · 12 runners
New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.Pace shape
12 runnersHot pace
8 early types pressing for the lead — expect a fast pace, favors closers (P/S).
Projected speed
- #2 POPPA ECHO (E, QSP 7)
- #7 SCHWARZENEGGER (E, QSP 6)
- #6 DOUBLE TALKER (EP, QSP 6)
- #10 ROSE RULER (EP, QSP 5)
- #12 MILITARY CRUISER (EP, QSP 4)
- #5 MAGIC BREW (E, QSP 4)
- #1 LONG POUR (EP, QSP 3)
- #8 FRONTIER JUSTICE (EP, QSP 2)
Trifecta shape
Wide openLottery shape — low hit rates, larger payouts when they cash. Entertainment-only; the model is not confident in any structure.
3-horse box on posts 7, 6, 12
The model's most-likely-to-cash structure (informational — not a bet recommendation).
Cost
$6.00
6 combos
Hit prob
2.0%
simulated
Typical payout if hit
$27.32
mean $28.90
Expected ROI
-90.2%
net $-5.41
- · Most-likely-to-cash structure: 3-horse box on posts [7, 6, 12] — hits 2.0% of simulated runs
- · At $6 stake, a typical cash pays ≈ $27 (mean $29; trifecta payoffs are heavy-tailed). Estimated from the public pool, validated against archive payoffs.
- · Wide-open shape — anyone could hit; longshots have room.
A Top picks
7
B Contenders
6, 12, 10
C Value-edge longshots
8, 1
Other ticket structures (5)
| Ticket | Cost | Hit prob | Typical payout | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1×3×3 key (top pick) | $6.00 | 2.1% | $24.99 | -90% |
| 1×4×4 key (top pick) | $12.00 | 3.9% | $28.91 | -86% |
| A key, B in 2nd, A+B+C in 3rd | $12.00 | 3.5% | $24.99 | -86% |
| 2×4×4 part wheel | $12.00 | 3.7% | $28.91 | -88% |
| 1×5×5 key (top pick) | $20.00 | 5.8% | $40.08 | -83% |
Hit prob is the model's per-race PL distribution. "Typical payout" is the median cash, weighted by the public pool's odds (not the model's own picks) and calibrated to actual historical trifecta payoffs — so it reflects what the tote really pays, not the model's disagreement. Walk-forward backtests show pari-mutuel takeout (~16-26%) is too steep to consistently clear at this data scale — these are tipsheet outputs, not bet recommendations.
Field
↳ Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).
| PP | Horse | ML | Pred Close | Pred Fig | Win | ITM% ↓ | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | AESCHWARZENEGGER | 1.6-1 | 1.1-1 | 88.9 | 20% | 52% | ▼-46% |
| 6 | BEPDOUBLE TALKER | 6.0-1 | 6.4-1 | 82.6 | 11% | 32% | ·-4% |
| 12 | BEPMILITARY CRUISER | 4.0-1 | 4.1-1 | 80.6 | 11% | 31% | ▼-20% |
| 10 | BEPROSE RULER | 8.0-1 | 8.2-1 | 81.4 | 9% | 29% | ·+0% |
| 9 | PTATERPIE | 15-1 | 21-1 | 78.3 | 8% | 24% | ▲+8% |
| 2 | EPOPPA ECHO | 15-1 | 24-1 | 81.1 | 7% | 22% | ▲+6% |
| 1 | CEPLONG POUR | 20-1 | 31-1 | 79.9 | 7% | 21% | ▲+9% |
| 11 | PMEGA MAGIC | 20-1 | 25-1 | 74.8 | 6% | 19% | ▲+7% |
| 8 | CEPFRONTIER JUSTICE | 30-1 | 46-1 | 76.2 | 6% | 18% | ▲+10% |
| 5 | EMAGIC BREW | 12-1 | 14-1 | 73.2 | 5% | 17% | ·-2% |
| 3 | PANCIENT HISTORY | 20-1 | 31-1 | 76.3 | 5% | 17% | ▲+5% |
| 4 | PABSOLUTELY HOT | 15-1 | 21-1 | 70.6 | 5% | 16% | ·-0% |
Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. See How to Use for the math.
Ask Claude Opus
Questions about the model's predictions for Race 9 · Sun, May 17 · Churchill Downs. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.
Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.
Limited to 30 questions per day per visitor. Answers are model-generated and may be incorrect — not betting advice.