John-Z's Overlay · Trifecta ATM
← Churchill Downs R9

PP 1

LONG POUR

C '22 · TOM'S D'ETAT × PURSUING JUSTICE

Trainer: ARNOLD GEORGE R II · Jockey: CARRASCO VICTOR R

Today's prediction

79.9

Speed fig

21.5%

In-the-money

Last 9 races

Why this prediction?

Base prediction: 76.4 fig points

Pushing prediction up

  • BRIS Prime Power +1.13
  • Mean Class Par Last 5 +0.92
  • Speed Fig On Todays Surface Mean +0.67
  • Trouble Adjusted Speed Fig Last 5 +0.59
  • Class Par Trend +0.29

Pushing prediction down

  • Field Size Change From Last -0.42
  • Speed Fig At Today Track Last -0.18
  • Mean Pace 2f Last 5 -0.17
  • Today Purse Log10 -0.17
  • Speed Fig At Today Track Mean -0.14

Past performances

Date Track Dist Sfx Fin Beat Fig Class Comment
2026-04-12 KEE 6f Dirt 3 10.8 80 95 3-4p; edged show 1/16
2026-02-22 GP 6f Dirt 3 8.0 81 92 Vied 2w btw; held show
2026-01-11 GP 5f Turf 6 5.8 80 89 Bmpd btwn3/8;weakened
2025-12-07 AQU 6f Dirt 4 0.5 88 89 Chased inside; missed
2025-11-15 AQU 6.5f Dirt 4 3.8 79 86 Dueled ins; wknd late
2025-10-19 BAQ 6f Dirt 2 0.8 87 88 Stalk;bid3w;outkicked
2025-09-20 BAQ 6f Dirt 2 5.0 81 88 2p-ins turn;kept on2nd
2025-08-23 SAR 6f Dirt 1 2.0 94 87 In hand 2p; rebuff foe
2025-07-27 SAR 7f Dirt 9 18.0 52 88 Bmp brk;bmp1/2;3-4p;6p