Sun, May 17
Race 8
OClm 80000n2x
Post: 4:22 · 7f · Dirt · $134K purse · 8 runners · LIVE Trifecta math uses live odds for 8 of 8 runners
New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.Pace shape
8 runnersContested pace
4 early types — pace should be honest but not crazy. No strong style bias.
Projected speed
- #2 ME AND MOLLY MCGEE (E, QSP 8)
- #7 VELVET VORTEX (EP, QSP 7)
- #8 BLUE FIRE (EP, QSP 6)
- #9 L. A. WOMAN (EP, QSP 1)
Trifecta shape
Wide openLottery shape — low hit rates, larger payouts when they cash. Entertainment-only; the model is not confident in any structure.
1×3×3 key (top pick) on posts 10, 2, 8, 7
The model's most-likely-to-cash structure (informational — not a bet recommendation).
Cost
$6.00
6 combos
Hit prob
3.8%
simulated
Typical payout if hit
$13.10
mean $22.18
Expected ROI
-85.9%
net $-5.15
- · Most-likely-to-cash structure: 1×3×3 key (top pick) on posts [10, 2, 8, 7] — hits 3.8% of simulated runs
- · At $6 stake, a typical cash pays ≈ $13 (mean $22; trifecta payoffs are heavy-tailed). Estimated from the public pool, validated against archive payoffs.
- · Wide-open shape — anyone could hit; longshots have room.
A Top picks
10
B Contenders
2, 8, 7
C Value-edge longshots
3, 1
Other ticket structures (5)
| Ticket | Cost | Hit prob | Typical payout | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-horse box | $6.00 | 3.8% | $17.80 | -89% |
| 1×4×4 key (top pick) | $12.00 | 7.1% | $20.96 | -81% |
| A key, B in 2nd, A+B+C in 3rd | $12.00 | 7.0% | $20.96 | -81% |
| 2×4×4 part wheel | $12.00 | 6.9% | $13.10 | -88% |
| 1×5×5 key (top pick) | $20.00 | 10.9% | $21.25 | -75% |
Hit prob is the model's per-race PL distribution. "Typical payout" is the median cash, weighted by the public pool's odds (not the model's own picks) and calibrated to actual historical trifecta payoffs — so it reflects what the tote really pays, not the model's disagreement. Walk-forward backtests show pari-mutuel takeout (~16-26%) is too steep to consistently clear at this data scale — these are tipsheet outputs, not bet recommendations.
Field
↳ Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).
| PP | Horse | ML | Pred Close | Live | Pred Fig | Win | ITM% ↓ | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | APBEAUTY REIGNS | 4.0-1 | 3.1-1 | ↓1.6-1 | 90.7 | 18% | 51% | ▼-47% |
| 2 | BEME AND MOLLY MCGEE | 2.5-1 | 1.8-1 | ↓1.2-1 | 87.7 | 15% | 43% | ▼-57% |
| 8 | BEPBLUE FIRE | 3.0-1 | 3.0-1 | ↑8.0-1 | 88.2 | 14% | 41% | ▲+13% |
| 7 | BEPVELVET VORTEX | 6.0-1 | 5.4-1 | ↑9.0-1 | 85.8 | 13% | 38% | ▲+13% |
| 1 | CPMENDELA | 8.0-1 | 7.4-1 | ↑15-1 | 85.3 | 12% | 36% | ▲+20% |
| 3 | CPUNTAMED MOMENT | 6.0-1 | 7.1-1 | ↑20-1 | 85.5 | 11% | 34% | ▲+22% |
| 9 | EPL. A. WOMAN | 20-1 | 21-1 | ·24-1 | 81.7 | 9% | 29% | ▲+19% |
| 5 | PLOVIN' ON THE RUN | 30-1 | 42-1 | ↓14-1 | 83.2 | 9% | 28% | ▲+11% |
| 4 | SCRPMISS ENCHANTED | 20-1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 6 | SCRSFLASH WEAR | 50-1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. Live column: ↓ green = ≥25% shorter than ML (money horse); ↑ red = ≥25% longer (drifting). See How to Use for the math.
Ask Claude Opus
Questions about the model's predictions for Race 8 · Sun, May 17 · Churchill Downs. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.
Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.
Limited to 30 questions per day per visitor. Answers are model-generated and may be incorrect — not betting advice.