John-Z's Overlay · Trifecta ATM
← Churchill Downs R8

PP 8

BLUE FIRE

F '22 · AURELIUS MAXIMUS × MYSTIC BLUE

Trainer: ASMUSSEN STEVEN M · Jockey: GEROUX FLORENT

Today's prediction

88.2

Speed fig

41.1%

In-the-money

Last 10 races

Why this prediction?

Base prediction: 76.4 fig points

Pushing prediction up

  • BRIS Prime Power +6.34
  • Mean Speed Fig Last 3 +1.39
  • Mean Class Par Last 5 +1.15
  • Speed Fig On Todays Surface Mean +0.97
  • Trouble Adjusted Speed Fig Last 5 +0.77

Pushing prediction down

  • Today Post Position -0.23
  • Num Career Starts -0.21
  • Weight Change From Last -0.19
  • Speed Fig Consistency -0.13
  • Today Field Size -0.13

Past performances

Date Track Dist Sfx Fin Beat Fig Class Comment
2026-04-11 OP 1.06m Dirt 7 14.5 83 101 Ins; roused5/16; faded
2026-03-22 FG 1.04m Dirt 1 0.5 91 89 In charge;on task;held
2026-02-06 OP 6f Dirt 2 2.8 87 95 2-4p;dug in;2nd best
2026-01-10 FG 6f Dirt 1 2.3 91 90 Pace; drifted; on task
2025-12-13 FG 6f Dirt 2 0.5 90 90 Rank; drift out; miss
2025-11-22 FG 6f Dirt 4 18.3 59 91 Vied btw; faded
2025-05-02 CD 7f Dirt 2 1.3 93 97 Shifted out; willingly
2025-03-22 FG 1.04m Dirt 1 1.3 83 82 Inch free1/4;held sway
2025-03-01 FG 1m Dirt 1 1.3 88 80 Bmp;2p;cleard upr;safe
2025-02-01 DED 7f Dirt 2 0.1 86 83 Dueled; just missed