John-Z's Overlay · Trifecta ATM
← Churchill Downs R8

PP 10

BEAUTY REIGNS

F '22 · INTO MISCHIEF × ILSA

Trainer: MOTT WILLIAM I · Jockey: ORTIZ IRAD JR

Today's prediction

90.7

Speed fig

51.1%

In-the-money

Last 10 races

Why this prediction?

Base prediction: 76.4 fig points

Pushing prediction up

  • BRIS Prime Power +6.06
  • Mean Speed Fig Last 3 +1.93
  • Mean Class Par Last 5 +1.56
  • Speed Fig On Todays Surface Mean +1.12
  • Trouble Adjusted Speed Fig Last 5 +0.98

Pushing prediction down

  • Field Size Change From Last -0.31
  • Today Post Position -0.25
  • Jockey Meet Win Rate -0.23
  • Num Career Starts -0.22
  • Today Field Size -0.12

Past performances

Date Track Dist Sfx Fin Beat Fig Class Comment
2026-04-18 OP 6f Dirt 4 3.5 88 Bid btw3p5/16;evnd1/16
2026-03-12 OP 6f Dirt 2 0.3 90 Traffic turn;too late
2025-08-02 SAR 7f Dirt 3 4.0 91 98 4w bid 3/8; kept on
2025-07-03 SAR 6.5f Dirt 2 4.3 98 94 Off step slow;ins-2p
2025-06-08 SAR 6f Dirt 3 1.0 93 91 Bmp after st; mild bid
2025-05-02 CD 6.5f Dirt 1 1.0 97 86 4wd upr;long drv;edged
2025-04-07 KEE 6.5f Dirt 2 3.5 86 86 Slight hop;2-6p;up plc
2025-01-30 GP 1.06m Dirt 4 9.3 79 86 5-4p;bid5/16;faded str
2024-12-07 AQU 1.13m Dirt 6 11.3 82 92 Outside;4-5p;no rally
2024-11-08 AQU 6.5f Dirt 1 0.5 78 86 Dueled 3p; game