Sun, May 17
Race 7
Md Sp Wt
Post: 3:50 · 6f · Dirt · $120K purse · 11 runners · LIVE Trifecta math uses live odds for 11 of 11 runners
New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.Pace shape
11 runnersUnprojectable
7 of 11 runners have no BRIS run-style code (likely first-time starters) — pace shape can't be called.
Projected speed
- #5 PUTEKETEKE (E, QSP 7)
- #8 ARMET (E, QSP 6)
- #9 DEEP FLAME (E, QSP 4)
7 of 11 runners have no BRIS run-style code (often first-time starters); narrative may understate the true pace.
Trifecta shape
CompetitiveModel has no clear edge — every ticket structure is steeply negative-EV. Skip, or treat as an entertainment bet and size accordingly.
1×3×3 key (top pick) on posts 9, 5, 11, 6
The model's most-likely-to-cash structure (informational — not a bet recommendation).
Cost
$6.00
6 combos
Hit prob
8.0%
simulated
Typical payout if hit
$8.67
mean $14.36
Expected ROI
-80.8%
net $-4.85
- · Most-likely-to-cash structure: 1×3×3 key (top pick) on posts [9, 5, 11, 6] — hits 8.0% of simulated runs
- · At $6 stake, a typical cash pays ≈ $9 (mean $14; trifecta payoffs are heavy-tailed). Estimated from the public pool, validated against archive payoffs.
- · Multiple legitimate contenders — model is less concentrated.
A Top picks
9
B Contenders
5, 11, 6
C Value-edge longshots
3, 7
Other ticket structures (5)
| Ticket | Cost | Hit prob | Typical payout | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-horse box | $6.00 | 7.2% | $8.67 | -85% |
| 2×4×4 part wheel | $12.00 | 13.0% | $15.47 | -77% |
| A key, B in 2nd, A+B+C in 3rd | $12.00 | 10.8% | $8.67 | -78% |
| 1×4×4 key (top pick) | $12.00 | 11.2% | $16.49 | -81% |
| 1×5×5 key (top pick) | $20.00 | 14.4% | $19.58 | -78% |
Hit prob is the model's per-race PL distribution. "Typical payout" is the median cash, weighted by the public pool's odds (not the model's own picks) and calibrated to actual historical trifecta payoffs — so it reflects what the tote really pays, not the model's disagreement. Walk-forward backtests show pari-mutuel takeout (~16-26%) is too steep to consistently clear at this data scale — these are tipsheet outputs, not bet recommendations.
Field
↳ Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).
| PP | Horse | ML | Pred Close | Live | Pred Fig | Win | ITM% ↓ | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | AEDEEP FLAME | 1.6-1 | 0.8-1 | ↓0.6-1 | 91.3 | 29% | 70% | ▼-30% |
| 5 | BEPUTEKETEKE | 8.0-1 | 6.5-1 | ↓6.0-1 | 81.5 | 15% | 45% | ▲+9% |
| 11 | BEMBRY SHOW | 3.5-1 | 3.5-1 | ·3.5-1 | 81.6 | 14% | 42% | ▼-15% |
| 6 | BPGREAT MOMENT | 6.0-1 | 7.2-1 | ↑15-1 | 78.8 | 12% | 38% | ▲+22% |
| 8 | EARMET | 12-1 | 14-1 | ↑18-1 | 67.2 | 6% | 20% | ▲+6% |
| 3 | CDON'S WINNER | 15-1 | 29-1 | ↑42-1 | 68.0 | 5% | 17% | ▲+11% |
| 1 | FLASHY RICH DEAL | 10-1 | 15-1 | ↑36-1 | 67.8 | 5% | 16% | ▲+9% |
| 7 | CECOSYSTEM | 20-1 | 42-1 | ↑59-1 | 68.6 | 4% | 14% | ▲+10% |
| 2 | JUSTICE | 30-1 | 52-1 | ↑44-1 | 68.7 | 4% | 13% | ▲+7% |
| 10 | MONSTER COOKIE | 20-1 | 40-1 | ↑29-1 | 68.0 | 4% | 13% | ·+4% |
| 4 | CREVALLI | 20-1 | 56-1 | ↑83-1 | 66.8 | 3% | 12% | ▲+9% |
Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. Live column: ↓ green = ≥25% shorter than ML (money horse); ↑ red = ≥25% longer (drifting). See How to Use for the math.
Ask Claude Opus
Questions about the model's predictions for Race 7 · Sun, May 17 · Churchill Downs. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.
Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.
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