Fri, May 15
Race 6
OClm 80000n2x
Post: 3:18 · 1.38m · Turf · $134K purse · 9 runners
New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.Pace shape
9 runnersContested pace
3 early types — pace should be honest but not crazy. No strong style bias.
Projected speed
- #4 BEFRIENDED (E, QSP 6)
- #5 STRONG DESTINY (EP, QSP 5)
- #1 CAVIAR BREAKFAST (EP, QSP 5)
1 of 9 runners have no BRIS run-style code (often first-time starters); narrative may understate the true pace.
Trifecta shape
Wide openLottery shape — low hit rates, larger payouts when they cash. Entertainment-only; the model is not confident in any structure.
1×4×4 key (top pick) on posts 8, 9, 6, 7, 5
The model's most-likely-to-cash structure (informational — not a bet recommendation).
Cost
$12.00
12 combos
Hit prob
3.4%
simulated
Typical payout if hit
$557.90
mean $647.66
Expected ROI
+84.8%
net $10.18
- · Most-likely-to-cash structure: 1×4×4 key (top pick) on posts [8, 9, 6, 7, 5] — hits 3.4% of simulated runs
- · At $12 stake, a typical cash pays ≈ $558 (mean $648; trifecta payoffs are heavy-tailed). Estimated from the public pool, validated against archive payoffs.
- · Wide-open shape — anyone could hit; longshots have room.
A Top picks
8, 9
B Contenders
6, 7, 5
C Value-edge longshots
—
Other ticket structures (5)
| Ticket | Cost | Hit prob | Typical payout | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1×5×5 key (top pick) | $20.00 | 5.5% | $480.23 | +50% |
| 4-horse box | $24.00 | 6.6% | $451.03 | +34% |
| 1×3×3 key (top pick) | $6.00 | 1.7% | $832.48 | +116% |
| 2×4×4 part wheel | $12.00 | 3.3% | $497.94 | +41% |
| 3-horse box | $6.00 | 1.7% | $497.94 | +46% |
Hit prob is the model's per-race PL distribution. "Typical payout" is the median cash, weighted by the public pool's odds (not the model's own picks) and calibrated to actual historical trifecta payoffs — so it reflects what the tote really pays, not the model's disagreement. Walk-forward backtests show pari-mutuel takeout (~16-26%) is too steep to consistently clear at this data scale — these are tipsheet outputs, not bet recommendations.
Field
↳ Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).
| PP | Horse | ML | Pred Close | Pred Fig | Win | ITM% ↓ | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | ASMASSARAT | 20-1 | 20-1 | 87.8 | 13% | 38% | ▲+25% |
| 9 | APONTARIO | 5.0-1 | 4.8-1 | 87.2 | 13% | 37% | ▼-6% |
| 6 | BPSOL D'ORO | 8.0-1 | 6.1-1 | 86.7 | 12% | 36% | ▲+7% |
| 7 | BPUNMERITED FAVOR | 10-1 | 9.6-1 | 87.5 | 12% | 36% | ▲+12% |
| 5 | BEPSTRONG DESTINY | 4.5-1 | 4.5-1 | 87.2 | 12% | 35% | ▼-11% |
| 2 | PHEREFORAGOODTIME | 3.0-1 | 3.9-1 | 85.4 | 11% | 32% | ▼-31% |
| 4 | EBEFRIENDED | 4.0-1 | 5.4-1 | 86.4 | 10% | 32% | ▼-19% |
| 1 | EPCAVIAR BREAKFAST | 6.0-1 | 7.2-1 | 84.3 | 9% | 28% | ▼-8% |
| 3 | CENIZA PAMPA | 10-1 | 12-1 | 83.1 | 9% | 27% | ·+4% |
Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. See How to Use for the math.
Ask Claude Opus
Questions about the model's predictions for Race 6 · Fri, May 15 · Churchill Downs. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.
Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.
Limited to 30 questions per day per visitor. Answers are model-generated and may be incorrect — not betting advice.