John-Z's Overlay · Trifecta ATM
← Churchill Downs R6

PP 5

STRONG DESTINY

F '22 · CONSTITUTION × BARBADIA

Trainer: SIMS MATTHEW P · Jockey: MACHADO LUAN

Today's prediction

87.2

Speed fig

34.9%

In-the-money

Last 8 races

Why this prediction?

Base prediction: 76.4 fig points

Pushing prediction up

  • BRIS Prime Power +6.56
  • Trouble Adjusted Speed Fig Last 5 +0.60
  • Mean Speed Fig Last 3 +0.58
  • Last Speed Fig +0.56
  • Last Finish Pos +0.51

Pushing prediction down

  • Mean Class Par Last 5 -0.63
  • Distance Change From Last -0.28
  • Speed Fig On Todays Surface Mean -0.20
  • Days Since Last Race -0.19
  • Last Btn Lengths -0.12

Past performances

Date Track Dist Sfx Fin Beat Fig Class Comment
2026-04-24 KEE 1.13m Turf Frctious;lost rider st
2026-03-06 TP 1.06m Dirt 1 15.5 87 88 2w-ins;geared down1/16
2026-01-09 TP 1.25m Dirt 1 8.5 87 80 2-3w;bid 2w;took over
2025-10-27 IND 1m Turf 2 0.1 74 74 Bid btw1/4;outfinished
2025-09-26 CD 1.06m Dirt 5 6.3 81 84 Trck ins-2p;chsd;yield
2025-08-10 ELP 1.06m Turf 8 5.0 77 80 3w;5w3/16;burshd;faded
2025-06-29 CD 1m Dirt 4 7.8 88 84 Brk in;3p btw;gave way
2025-05-31 CD 7f Dirt 3 8.0 79 86 Stalk ins;no match upr