Fri, May 15
Race 5
Clm 50000
Post: 2:45 · 6f · Dirt · $86K purse · 7 runners
New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.Pace shape
7 runnersSpeed duel
7 early types and no pressers or closers in the field — expect a fast, attritional pace where the fittest E/EP survives. No style edge.
Projected speed
- #2 PULSTAR (E, QSP 8)
- #6 FREAKS GO (E, QSP 7)
- #5 CLAP BACK (E, QSP 7)
- #4 GLAZIN' FURY (E, QSP 6)
- #1 TRAPPED (EP, QSP 5)
- #7 FINAL SHIPMAN (EP, QSP 5)
- #3 HEAVEN'S BOLT (EP, QSP 0)
Trifecta shape
Wide openLottery shape — low hit rates, larger payouts when they cash. Entertainment-only; the model is not confident in any structure.
1×3×3 key (top pick) on posts 6, 2, 4, 3
The model's most-likely-to-cash structure (informational — not a bet recommendation).
Cost
$6.00
6 combos
Hit prob
5.2%
simulated
Typical payout if hit
$34.65
mean $31.47
Expected ROI
-72.6%
net $-4.36
- · Most-likely-to-cash structure: 1×3×3 key (top pick) on posts [6, 2, 4, 3] — hits 5.2% of simulated runs
- · At $6 stake, a typical cash pays ≈ $35 (mean $31; trifecta payoffs are heavy-tailed). Estimated from the public pool, validated against archive payoffs.
- · Wide-open shape — anyone could hit; longshots have room.
A Top picks
6, 2
B Contenders
4, 3, 1
C Value-edge longshots
—
Other ticket structures (5)
| Ticket | Cost | Hit prob | Typical payout | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-horse box | $6.00 | 5.8% | $27.35 | -73% |
| 1×4×4 key (top pick) | $12.00 | 9.6% | $39.07 | -65% |
| 2×4×4 part wheel | $12.00 | 10.2% | $36.33 | -67% |
| 1×5×5 key (top pick) | $20.00 | 14.8% | $42.90 | -63% |
| 2×5×5 part wheel | $24.00 | 18.6% | $39.11 | -57% |
Hit prob is the model's per-race PL distribution. "Typical payout" is the median cash, weighted by the public pool's odds (not the model's own picks) and calibrated to actual historical trifecta payoffs — so it reflects what the tote really pays, not the model's disagreement. Walk-forward backtests show pari-mutuel takeout (~16-26%) is too steep to consistently clear at this data scale — these are tipsheet outputs, not bet recommendations.
Field
↳ Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).
| PP | Horse | ML | Pred Close | Pred Fig | Win | ITM% ↓ | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | AEFREAKS GO | 2.5-1 | 2.8-1 | 79.3 | 20% | 55% | ▼-17% |
| 2 | AEPULSTAR | 5.0-1 | 6.8-1 | 78.2 | 18% | 52% | ▲+9% |
| 4 | BEGLAZIN' FURY | 4.5-1 | 6.1-1 | 76.3 | 14% | 44% | ·-3% |
| 3 | BEPHEAVEN'S BOLT | 10-1 | 11-1 | 75.1 | 13% | 40% | ▲+17% |
| 1 | BEPTRAPPED | 15-1 | 17-1 | 75.1 | 13% | 39% | ▲+23% |
| 5 | ECLAP BACK | 6.0-1 | 13-1 | 72.3 | 12% | 37% | ·+1% |
| 7 | EPFINAL SHIPMAN | 4.5-1 | 8.0-1 | 72.1 | 10% | 33% | ▼-13% |
Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. See How to Use for the math.
Ask Claude Opus
Questions about the model's predictions for Race 5 · Fri, May 15 · Churchill Downs. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.
Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.
Limited to 30 questions per day per visitor. Answers are model-generated and may be incorrect — not betting advice.