John-Z's Overlay · Trifecta ATM
← Churchill Downs R6

PP 7

UNMERITED FAVOR

F '22 · SUMMER FRONT × GOING FOR BROKE

Trainer: MCPEEK KENNETH G · Jockey: GEROUX FLORENT

Today's prediction

87.5

Speed fig

35.5%

In-the-money

Last 9 races

Why this prediction?

Base prediction: 76.4 fig points

Pushing prediction up

  • BRIS Prime Power +5.86
  • Mean Speed Fig Last 3 +0.97
  • Mean Pace 4f Last 5 +0.96
  • Last Speed Fig +0.70
  • Trouble Adjusted Speed Fig Last 5 +0.69

Pushing prediction down

  • Distance Change From Last -0.27
  • Today Post Position -0.20
  • Mean Class Par Last 5 -0.19
  • Today Field Size -0.16
  • Last Finish Pos -0.14

Past performances

Date Track Dist Sfx Fin Beat Fig Class Comment
2026-04-24 KEE 1.13m Turf 6 5.0 90 Saved ground; no avail
2025-12-27 FG 1.06m Turf 4 1.5 86 86 6p; closed willingly
2025-11-15 AQU 1.38m Turf 5 4.0 79 88 2p1st;inside;no threat
2025-10-10 KEE 1.19m Turf 1 2.0 85 86 Off slow/brshd;2-3w;7p
2025-09-04 KD 1.31m Turf 1 0.1 83 79 Driftd;bmpd near wire
2025-08-10 ELP 1.06m Turf 2 0.5 82 80 Ins;split 2w;clrd;cght
2025-07-20 ELP 1m Dirt 4 13.8 71 80 Ins;faded 2nd;improved
2024-10-26 KEE 1.13m Turf 4 0.3 77 76 Ins;splt 2w1/8;vie ins
2024-08-31 KD 1m Turf 6 13.5 63 71 Veerd in st;mvd up btw